Thursday, January 17, 2013

26 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 26 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 26:
  • In Hebrew, each letter has a numerical value and Gematria "is the calculation of the numerical equivalence of letters, words, or phrases, and, on that basis, gaining, insight into interrelation of different concepts and exploring the interrelationship between words and ideas." Anywho, 26 carries some significance in that it signifies the proper God of Israel, YHWH. Take from that as you will, I say it's a sign that today will be a good day and the 2013 baseball season will be fantastic.
  • Billy Williams of the Cubs, Rangers manager Johnny Oates and the Angels founding owner Gene Autry all have jersey number 26 retired.
  • If you were to run 26 miles (and some change) you would have run a marathon. Congratulations!
  • In 1926 the Cardinals beat the Yankees in the World Series in seven games. In game six, Cardinals starter Pete Alexander pitched a complete game victory for the win and the following day relieved Jesse Haines to record the last 7 outs, winning the World Series. Impressive performance for the 39-year old future Hall of Famer. St. Louis Catcher Bob O'Farrell won the MVP in the NL and Cleveland Indians first basemen George Burns (not that George Burns) won the MVP in the AL batting .358 with 64 doubles, the second most in baseball history.  
  • Unsurprisingly in 1926, Babe Ruth led the league in runs (139), home runs (47), RBI (146), walks (144), on base (.516) and slugging (.737). At that point in his career Ruth was 31 and hit 356 home runs, he had 358 more left in him. 
  • Paul Konerko and Aaron Hill hit 26 home runs last season. Considering Konerko plays first base and Aaron Hill second base, it's safe to say Hill had the better season. However, did you know that Konerko has 422 home runs? If Konerko were to get to 500 home runs would he have a Hall of Fame case? I'm not one to vote in someone just on milestones, but it would be an interesting debate. What say you? 

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

The Morse Trade

Mike Morse is the biggest name in the recent three-way trade that sends him to Seattle, catcher John Jaso to Oakland and prospects to Washington. However, when you consider all of the angles he's probably not the best player in the deal as that would be John Jaso.

I won't talk too much about John Jaso because Dave Cameron already has and it's safe to say I won't top his analysis. Although Jaso isn't a full time player (struggles mightily against lefties) you should be aware that last year in 361 plate appearances Jaso hit .276/.394/.456 with 10 home runs and 50 RBI. As Cameron noted, Jaso's never displayed that type of power before, but he's always had terrific plate discipline.  For his career Jaso has 140 walks with only 128 strikeouts, that's pretty special and should continue regardless if Jaso is hitting more balls in the gap or over the fence. Anyway you want to slice it, a catcher with a career .359 OBP and 116 OPS+ has a lot of value, even if he doesn't play every day. The A's know that and traded three prospects for his services. It doesn't need to be said, but it's a typical Billy Beane trade. 

Meanwhile, in return for John Jaso (a popular breakout pick!) the Mariners receive ex-Mariners and ex-Nationals slugger Mike Morse. Morse spent five years in and out of the majors before playing well at the end of the 2010 season for the Nationals finally breaking out in 2011 hitting .303/.360/.550 with 31 home runs. Last year Morse started the season on the DL with a strained back, only playing in 106 games while hitting .291/.321/.470. Morse has above average power and can really rake it to the opposite field which should help in Saefco. But, and it's a pretty substantial but, John Jaso is cheap and under team control for the next three seasons while Morse is being paid over $6 million in 2013 and can be a free agent next year. 

The Mariners have likely pointed to Jaso's career splits and their youngin' Jesus Montero and called Jaso a part-time player for them, and they would probably right. However, Morse has had 500 plate appearances just once in his career -- relying on him to be an every day player in comparison to Jaso isn't necessarily a responsible conclusion to make. 

I like this deal for the A's, trading pitching prospects on a team with plenty of young, pitching depth for a catcher who might lead the team in OBP has to be considered a smart move. I also like this trade for the Nationals as Morse didn't have a spot on the team once the Nationals signed Adam LaRoche.  But as far as the Mariners are concerned, I'm not a huge fan of the deal. The Mariners have lacked punch in the lineup for several years, something that Morse can help with but they also acquired Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales this offseason and Justin Smoak may yet become something and Jesus Montero might not stay at catcher. I suppose this trade illustrates confidence they have in Montero which is certainly a good thing and I hope he works out for the Mariners. However, I just can't get it out of my head that since 2010 Morse has a 5.7% BB% and a 22.1% K% --that's not the type of plate discipline that you like to see out of players entering their 30s with a spotty injury history to boot.

The chances of this deal really backfiring on the Mariners in any truly meaningful way might be slim but still, color me skeptical on this deal for the M's, a win for the A's and a win for the N's. 

27 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 27 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 27:

Mordecai Brown's pitching hand. (Wikipedia)

  • There's the 27 Club, all of the musicians who have died at age 27. It's not necessarily a list you'd want to be on but if you find yourself on such a list, you're in good company -- Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Jimi Hendrix, Kurt Cobain and several others. It just so happens that I turn 27 this June, I suppose I better get my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames. 
  • While many baseball players peak at age 27, it might be somewhat of a fallacy
  • Jason Heyward, Aramis Ramirez, Matt Holliday A.J. Pierzynski and Garrett Jones hit 27 home runs last year. I've already forgotten how good Aramis was last year, hitting .300/.360/.540 with a 142 wRC+ as well as contributing with the glove leading to 6.5 fWAR, the highest mark of his career. So maybe players peak at age 34 not 27? 
  • These countdowns have been littered with the Yankees (Hint: they were a pretty good baseball team back then) and 1927 won't change that trend. The '27 Yankees finished 110-44, winning the AL pennant by 19 games and the team featuring Murderers' Row is considered to be one of the best teams of all time. That team scored 975 runs and had 5 players with an OPS+ of 125 or greater. Babe Ruth hit .356/.486/.772 and belted 60 home runs while Lou Gehrig won the MVP batting .373 and leading the league with 175 RBI. Center fielder Earle Combs batted .356 and hit 23 triples. As a team the Yankees had a 127 OPS+ and a 122 ERA+. They scored 131 more runs than the next best team in the AL and allowed 103 fewer runs than the next best team. Unsurprisingly they won the World Series, sweeping the Pirates in 4 games.  
  • Paul Waner of the Pirates batted .380 in 1927 while also leading the league in hits, triples and RBI en route to a MVP in his second season in the majors. Waner wouldn't win another MVP but he finished his career with 3,152 hits and a .333 career average. Waner was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1952 and was apparently nicknamed Big Poison. The nicknames we have in today's game are sub-par. If I'm a Pirates fan I'm bringing Big Poison back for Andrew McCutchen. 
  • Carlton Fisk (Red Sox), Catfish Hunter (Athletics) and Juan Marichal (Giants) all wore #27 and have had their numbers retired. In 1963, Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn pitched in one of the better duels of all time. Check out the boxscore.
  • In 1893, George Davis hit 27 triples but didn't lead the league because Perry Werden hit 29 of his own. Werden started as a pitcher in 1884 at age 22 going 12-1 with a 1.97 ERA but an arm injury forced him to change positions. He ended up playing first base regularly in 1890 for the Toledo Maumees of the American Association. In 1894 and 1895, playing for the Minneapolis Minnies in the minor leagues, Werden hit 88 home runs. However, if you take a look at the roster from that season everyone was hitting home runs, something tells me the Minnies stadium had some short fences. Nonetheless, it's still a cool story, bro!
  • In 1988 Vince Coleman stole 81 bases, but he was also caught 27 times. Over his first six seasons, from 1985-1990, Coleman stole 549 bases averaging 92 steals a season. I hope Billy Hamilton can do a decent Vince Coleman facsimile for the Reds whenever he gets called up, that would be fun to watch.
  • In 1909 Mordecai Brown won 27 games for the Chicago Cubs. Mordecai was nicknamed Three Finger because he really only had three fingers on his pitching hand due to an accident as a child growing up on a farm in Terre Haute, Indiana. Three Finger was on the Cubs in 1908 when they won the World Series, finishing 29-9 with a 1.47 ERA and as you know, the Cubs haven't won since. Brown was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1949. When life throws you lemons, make lemonade and when life cuts off your fingers, use it to your advantage to throw a wicked curve ball. 

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

28 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 28 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 28:

  • BJ Upton hit a career high 28 home runs last year for the Rays. This offseason he signed a 5-year $75.25 million deal with the Braves. The Diamondbacks have dangled Bossman Jr.'s brother, Justin Upton in trade talks and count me as someone who would love to see an Upton/Upton/Heyward Outfield. That's Fantasy Baseball gold, with a high chance of some fools goldyears thrown in as well. 
  • What do Adam Dunn, Pedro Alvarez, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Danny Espinosa and Curtis Granderson have in common? They all struck out at least 28% of the time. That's a lot of strike outs but it's also decent production as five of those players had a wRC+ of 108 or greater.
  • In 1928 the Yankees swept the Cardinals in the World Series, Mickey Cochrane won the MVP  for the Philadelphia Athletics in the AL and Jim Bottemley won the MVP for the Cardinals. Bottomley had quite a season, leading the NL in home runs (31), triples (20) and RBI (136). Cochrane however, was pretty mediocre for the Athletics, only batting .293/.395/.464 in 131 games. Meanwhile, on the first place Yankees Babe Ruth batted .323/.463/.709, leading the league in home runs and RBI and Lou Gehrig batted .374/.467/.648. Neither Ruth or Gehrig received a single vote for MVP while their teammates Tony Lazzeri and Waite Hoyt received a few votes which sounds strange but it's because of an old rule. At that time a player could only receive a League Award once in his career, and since Ruth and Gehrig had previously won the award they were ineligible to win it again. 
  • Whitey Ford was born in 1928. Ford finished with a 236-100 record and pitched in game one of the World Series in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963 and 1964. That's pretty cool. Ford's Win-Loss %  ranks 3rd all time behind Spud Chandler and Al Spalding. Yes, that is the Spalding from the sporting goods company. While Albert Goodwill Spalding is famous for his company, it should be noted that he led the league in wins from 1870-1876. In 1874, Spalding went 52-16 in 617.1 innings pitched. It was a different game back then. I wonder what glove he used. Rawlings? 
  • On November 26, 1928 Butts Wagner died. Born Albert Wagner in 1871, Butts was Honus Wagner's older brother. Butts debuted in 1898 at age 26 and never saw the diamond again. I don't know if there was a Fredo/Michael Corleone thing going on with the Wagners, but it's safe to say that Honus was the better player. 
  • Only one team has retired jersey #28 and that is the Twins and Bert Blyleven. Blyleven was finally inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2011. 
  • Pitchers have won 28 games 33 different times but Dizy Dean did it most recently in 1935. From 1932-1937 Dean won 133 games, a MVP aware and went to four all-star games. In the 1937 All-Star game however, Dean was hit by a line drive injuring his foot. As a result, Dean was forced to change his pitching motion, unable to land on his foot the same way as before and unfortunately Dean was never the same. Still, Dean is in the Hall of Fame and has one of the better names in baseball

BREAKING: Leaked Lance Armstrong Interview Question

I won't name my source but I've received a snippet from Lance Armstrong's interview with Oprah:
OW: Lance, could you describe the era?
LA: Oprah, as I had said before, it was such a loosey-goosey era."
Just like Major League Baseball in the early 2000's, or more specifically the Texas Rangers clubhouse, or even more specifically in Alex Rodriguez' locker, it was very "loosey-goosey."


The Baseball Hall of Fame

The 2012 Hall of Fame ballot was loaded. In fact, there were so many worthy players that it sparked a conversation about expanding the ballot, which currently limits voters to only voting in 10 members.

So naturally, 10 guys made the Hall of Fame, right?

Wrong. As I'm sure you are all aware, nobody was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) decided that nobody was worthy of having a speech in Cooperstown this year. This is especially odd considering that according to bWAR the 2nd, 36th, 52nd, 61st, 67th, 68th, 71st, 74th, 88th, 106th, 117th and 127th best hitters in baseball history were on the ballot, along with the 3rd and 26th best pitchers of all time. None of them were elected by the BBWAA. 

As far as I'm concerned this is because of the following reasons:
  • Steroids - Anyone guilty (Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, etc.) or just wrongly associated (Piazza, Bagwell) with steroids couldn't garner enough support.
  • 10 ballot minimum - While this wouldn't be an issue for voters who refuse to vote in anyone associated with the "steroid-era", those who would vote for Bonds, Clemens, et al might not have enough room on their ballot for other potentially deserving players like Larry Walker or Kenny Lofton, hurting their chances. 
  • Distinguishing between "First Ballot Hall of Famers" and just a regular Hall of Famer - There is no such thing as a first ballot Hall of Famer and a regular Hall of Famer. Anyone deserving of the Hall, deserves to be inducted the first go around. Why wait?
  • Stubbornness - Every voter is entitled to their opinion, but anyone deciding that Jack Morris, Dale Murphy or Lee Smith is a Hall of Famer but Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell aren't is just holding onto the past. Don't blame the internet on Jack Morris not receiving enough votes, blame his spotty resume. 
On one hand I'm a little baffled that this happened but on the other, it's not a surprise given the history of the BBWAA. There are people eligible to vote that no longer follow the sport, why do they deserve a say in the matter?

In 1936, the first year of the Hall of Fame, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner were elected. None of those players received 100% of the vote and it has remained that way since. Just because a few voters in 1936 decided not to vote in Babe Ruth doesn't mean that nobody deserves 100% of the vote. If you are a worthy Hall of Famer, you are a worthy Hall of Famer. When you put weight into what occurred in 1936 and/or distinguish "First Ballot" Hall of Famers from the rest of the pack, you get results like this and it's pretty safe to say that it's both bad for the Hall and for baseball.

I suppose if you wrote about baseball in 1992 but have since worked for Golf Digest you might resort to that sort of lazy analysis but then I'd also question the integrity of you having a vote. 

While the electorate is likely trying to protect the integrity of the Hall of Fame their stubbornness is actually hurting the same sport and museum that they wish to protect. 

I'll admit that I'm more of a "big" Hall guy in that I'm more lenient in who I would allow in Cooperstown and it's because I believe the Hall of Fame should have a pulse and be a living and breathing thing. When the BBWAA decides that nobody is going to Cooperstown they essentially take away its pulse, and it's life.

I'm obviously a huge baseball fan but I haven't been to Cooperstown since I was about eight years old. I also live in New York, which makes the trip to Cooperstown not a particularly long journey. With all of that said, I don't have any huge need or want to go back and the voters aren't giving me any reason to change my mind. 

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

34 Days Until Spring Training

There are only 34 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. 

Here are some interesting facts about the number 34:

  • Jay Bruce hit a career high 34 home runs last season but also saw his strikeout rate increase and his walk rate decrease slightly. Over the last three seasons Bruce has been about 20% better than the average hitter which is certainly nice but the Reds would like to see Bruce become a star rather than a Nick Swisher. 2013 will be an important year for Bruce, let's see if he can take the next step. 
  • In 1934, the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. The MVPs of both leagues matched up in the World Series with Mickey Cochrane winning the award on the Tigers at catcher and Dizzy Dean winning the National League MVP for the Cardinals as a starter. The Yankees finished second in the American League, so Lou Gehrig only finished 5th in the MVP voting. This was despite Gehrig hitting .363 with 49 home runs and 165 RBI. Gehrig walked 109 times with only 31 strike outs. Dizzy Dean won 30 games for the Cardinals in 1934, a feat that wouldn't happen again until Denny McLain won 31 games for the Tigers in 1968. Something tells me we won't see that again.
  • Hank Aaron, Roger Maris, Luis Aparicio, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline and Bud Selig were born in 1934.
  • The 34th President of the United States was Dwight Eisenhower. Eisenhower won 442 electoral votes to Adlai Stevenson's 89. Richard Nixon was his running mate. 
  • The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers both retired Nolan Ryan's #34 and the Oakland Athletics and Milwaukee Brewers both retired Rollie Fingers' #34 jersey. Nobody can wear #34 in Minnesota either as the Twins retired Kirby Puckett's jersey. Speaking of Nolan Ryan, from age 40-46 Ryan was 71-66 with a 3.33 ERA and a 116 ERA+ with 1,437 strikeouts over 1,271 innings pitched. Not bad for an old man. For comparison's sake, over those same ages Jamie Moyer was 94-70 with a 4.36 ERA/100 ERA+ with 814 strikeouts over 1,386 innings pitched.
  • Cy Young and Kid Nichols won 34 games in 1893. Both pitchers threw a combined 847 innings with only 196 strike outs. CC Sabathia finished 14th in the league in strikeouts with 197 this season. Although it might have been the dead ball era, a lot more balls were put into play. Kid Nichols led the league with a 1.28 whip a mark that would have ranked 53rd among qualified pitchers in 2012. Do you think team defense has improved since 1893? 
  • In 1912, Ty Cobb was caught stealing 34 times. I don't think Detroit minded too much though as Cobb batted over .400 for the second year in a row finishing with a .409/.456/.584 line. Cobb only finished 7th in the MVP voting.
  • Hakeem "the Dream" Olajuwon's #34 jersey is retired by the Houston Rockets. Here are his greatest hits.
  • In 1884 and 1885 Old Hoss Radbourn threw 34 wild pitches. His Twitter account is phenomenal
  • In 1997 Craig Biggio was hit by 34 pitches. Craig Biggio should be in the Hall of Fame.