Radiohead Playing Bonnaroo 2012!

In 2006 I saw Radiohead play Bonnaroo in what was one of the best concerts I have ever seen.

Now they are playing in 2012, who's coming with?

Let it be.

In an effort to not become TMZ - Sports Edition and piggyback on the unfortunate news of Josh Hamilton's relapse to increase site traffic for a day or two, I just want to wish him well.

That is all.

Jason Heyward Breakout?

Pop Quiz:

1) How old is Jason Heyward?

A: 24 years old

B: 25 years old

C: 22 years old

2) Will Jason Heyward have a breakout campaign this year?
A: True
B: False

Answer Key: 1-C; 2-A

That's right, Jason Heyward, the former top prospect with over 1000 plate appearances in the major leagues is still only 22 years old. Wow. And he will have a breakout year in 2012. Or he will at least revert to what he was in his rookie year, which if you remember, was quite amazing. Basically, as the story goes - if you are awesome in the major leagues at age 20, you'll generally have a great career. I'm looking at you Justin Upton, Alex Rodriguez, Mickey Mantle, and I think you get the point.

So, what was the hold up in 2011 then? Well, Heyward did have a bum shoulder last year, and although Chipper Jones would have liked him to play through the pain, it's clear that it effected his play on the field. It's also clear that Heyward was a little unlucky with his batted-balls, only mustering up a .260 BABIP. However, he hit significantly more infield flies last year (21.8 IFFB%) compared to 2010 (8.4%). While we would
expect his BABIP to be closer to .300, it's hard to do that when one out of every five balls you make contact with ends up being a lazy popup in the infield. But, that trend can likely be issued to Heyward's shoulder woes or bout of bad luck, or more likely, a combination of the two.

But, rather than talk about a new bill of health and regression as reasons why Heyward will breakout, I'd like to point to something else - his swing. Last year in August, Chipper Jones (when he wasn't busy complaining about Heyward sitting out because of injury) said something that I found very interesting about Heyward's swing (courtesy of Ray Glier and USA Today:

"Jason's got one swing. His swing needs some versatility. How many times have we seen him get fooled on an off-speed pitch and one-hand it into centerfield?," Jones said.

"He swings and misses because he takes the same swing. He's had some mechanics that have been a little iffy that he is trying to work out. You show me a .300 hitter and I'll show you a guy who is going to take five different swings. 

"He takes a two-handed swing. Have you ever seen him take a one-handed swing? I haven't either? How many times have you seen me get fooled on a changeup away and one-hand it through the (pitcher's) box.

"You've got to use your hands. He's got a long, smooth swing and until he learns to get some movement (in his hands) and drop them into a slot, a lot like you would a golf club and let his hands work for him, he is going to struggle.

"We've got to get him back to using the whole field like he did last year."

Is Chipper on to something here? I'd love to see an advanced study on how hitter's change their swing depending on the count or pitch, or at least see a survey of major league players, but don't count me as someone who isn't going to take Chipper's advice on hitting. He only has one World Series ring, an MVP, a batting title, and a .304/.402/.533 career line with 454 (and counting) home runs. Anyway, it looks like Heyward has listened:

Chipper Jones looked him in the eye and initiated a little back-and-forth before Heyward picked up his bat to take his first swings, with Jones, new Braves hitting coach Greg Walker and his associate Scott Fletcher looking on.

“How’s your confidence?” Jones said.

“Man, my confidence is good,” Heyward said. [...]

When it came time to get back into the batting cage, Heyward knew he would have to start from scratch. The only way to erase his bad habits was to eradicate them. So for the first three weeks in the cage, starting in mid-October, he didn’t pick up a bat. [...]

Once they did, Heyward said, Walker has complemented the work he started on his own. Heyward said he’s gotten a big lift from watching video with “Walk,” “Fletch,” and “Chip,” comparing his swing from 2010 and 2011. Walker agrees. 

“Everybody that’s seen Jason swing the bat so far is excited about where he is,” he said.

The entire article is worth reading, but to recap: Jason Heyward is healthy, he has put in the effort to fix his swing and everyone is excited about it - including Chipper Jones.

Let me finish with one last question, did anyone who answered False to the second question in the pop quiz want to take back their answer? When players with Heyward's pedigree and talent put in the effort, they tend to have great careers. Remember that fabulous rookie season? My money is on that being his baseline. 

Self Promotion Time!

Hey fans,

As you all know, Ben's Baseball Bias isn't a fantasy baseball site and although I will occasionally post about fantasy baseball here (sometimes I can't resist the urge!) I now have another avenue for that as I will be writing fantasy articles for BaseballReflections.com and Fantasy Baseball Tools throughout the season.

My first post at BaseballReflections.com is already up and can be found here.

I hope you will continue to read me here as well as elsewhere on the interweb!

So long,

Ben

Prospects!

As we inch closer to Opening Day I will have several team and player specific posts regarding the top prospects and minor league systems in baseball, but for now to hold you over I would like to guide you towards the top 10 prospect lists on each team via Baseball America. 

Some things of note:

• The Mariners, Braves, A's and Diamondbacks have a lot of pitching depth. This would explain why trading Pineda "ain't no thang" to the Mariners' future pitching rotation and why the Braves were glad to part with Derek Lowe and have additionally been shopping Jair Jurrjens.
• The Nationals may have traded 3 of their prospects to the A's for Gio Gonzalez, but they kept their top two, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, and both should help the Nationals build a formidable lineup to pair with their strong rotation.
• Either the Mets have one of the strongest systems in baseball or Wilmer Flores is quickly becoming a bust.
• Future, Sweet Player Names:  Didi Gregorius, Bubba Starling, Jon Schoop and Scooter Gennett.

Prince Fielder, Holy Sh*t!

Question: What do you do when your everyday DH gets injured for the season and is still owed $38M until 2014?

Like father, like son. Fat. (Sports Illustrated)

Answer: You go out and sign another DH to a 9-year contract worth $214M!

That solution doesn't seem appropriate to the problem at hand, but nonetheless that's exactly what the Tigers did yesterday when they reached an agreement with Prince Fielder. 

The next question then is, was this a smart decision? The short answer is no - signing Prince Fielder and his body type (5'11'' and at least 275 lbs) to the 4th largest contract in baseball's history isn't likely to produce fine results towards the middle and end of the contract. I'm not sure anyone's body will age like a fine wine, but Prince's may just have an earlier expiration date than most. However, the Tigers are also paying Prince to play right now, and right now the Tigers are trying to win a World Series. As they say, flags fly forever, and Prince should help the Tigers raise a flag in the near future.

By how much though? It's important to note that the Tigers aren't simply upgrading their division winning roster with Prince Fielder, he's replacing Victor Martinez who was pretty good himself last year, as David Schoenfield notes:

2011 Victor Martinez: 91 runs created, 389 outs made, 6.34 runs per 27 outs (595 PAs) 2011 Prince Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs made, 8.29 runs per 27 outs (692 PAs)

If we extrapolate Martinez's 2011 season to 692 plate appearances, we get: 

Martinez: 106 runs created, 452 outs Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs 

In sabermetric analysis, every 10 runs is roughly equal to one win. So Fielder created about 24 more runs while using up 29 fewer outs. That's an extra game's worth of outs for the Tigers, or roughly an additional five runs. So under this very rough cut (leaving aside ballpark effects and so on) we're talking about 29 runs -- or three wins. 

The Tigers won 95 games last year, add the additional 3 wins that they will get from Prince Fielder and they're a 98 win team, and one of the favorites in the American League, right? Wrong. The Tigers run differential last year was that of an 89 win team, making the Tigers a 92-ish win team with the Prince Fielder addition.

Prince Fielder maintains the Tigers edge on division that they had before the Martinez injury, so in the short run it's not necessarily a dreadful signing for them. But 9 years and $214M is a lot of money for a 3-win upgrade, to say the least.

If the Tigers win a slew of pennants or the World Series in the upcoming years they can rationalize to themselves that it's all worth it. Me? I'll believe it when I see it and what I see is the year 2015 with two, $22M+ DHs hoping to get on base at a higher clip than their weight with a fanbase who has long forgotten about a couple of now meaningless division titles.

To change gears for a second, as a baseball fan I am definitely excited by this deal. I'm excited to hear the backlash against Scott Boras. I'm excited to see Miguel Cabrera possibly play third base, a position he played  several years and several pounds ago. And I'm excited to see what Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will do together, which also means I'm excited to read sportswriters ramble about how much this will help Cabrera and bloggers-in-their-mother's-basements argue that assumption.

How many days until opening day?

אֵיפֹה Prince Fielder Going?

Yesterday I had an entire post lined up talking about the Prince Fielder market. It is now safe to say that post is outdated, but I was happy with the headline and I'm going to post it here anyway. A more appropriate Prince Fielder post is coming soon, but for now you are stuck with a brief Hebrew lesson.

And for those of you who did not spend a few months in ulpan in Israel, אֵיפֹה (eyfo) is Hebrew for where.