Ben's Baseball Bias

Radiohead Playing Bonnaroo 2012!

2012-02-14T12:03:00.000-05:00

In 2006 I saw Radiohead play Bonnaroo in what was one of the best concerts I have ever seen.

Now they are playing in 2012, who's coming with?

Let it be.

2012-02-03T12:09:00.001-05:00

In an effort to not become TMZ - Sports Edition and piggyback on the unfortunate news of Josh Hamilton's relapse to increase site traffic for a day or two, I just want to wish him well.

That is all.

Jason Heyward Breakout?

2012-02-03T08:00:00.008-05:00

Pop Quiz:

1) How old is Jason Heyward?

A: 24 years old

B: 25 years old

C: 22 years old

2) Will Jason Heyward have a breakout campaign this year?
A: True
B: False

Answer Key: 1-C; 2-A

That's right, Jason Heyward, the former top prospect with over 1000 plate appearances in the major leagues is still only 22 years old. Wow. And he will have a breakout year in 2012. Or he will at least revert to what he was in his rookie year, which if you remember, was quite amazing. Basically, as the story goes - if you are awesome in the major leagues at age 20, you'll generally have a great career. I'm looking at you Justin Upton, Alex Rodriguez, Mickey Mantle, and I think you get the point.

So, what was the hold up in 2011 then? Well, Heyward did have a bum shoulder last year, and although Chipper Jones would have liked him to play through the pain, it's clear that it effected his play on the field. It's also clear that Heyward was a little unlucky with his batted-balls, only mustering up a .260 BABIP. However, he hit significantly more infield flies last year (21.8 IFFB%) compared to 2010 (8.4%). While we would
expect his BABIP to be closer to .300, it's hard to do that when one out of every five balls you make contact with ends up being a lazy popup in the infield. But, that trend can likely be issued to Heyward's shoulder woes or bout of bad luck, or more likely, a combination of the two.

But, rather than talk about a new bill of health and regression as reasons why Heyward will breakout, I'd like to point to something else - his swing. Last year in August, Chipper Jones (when he wasn't busy complaining about Heyward sitting out because of injury) said something that I found very interesting about Heyward's swing (courtesy of Ray Glier and USA Today:

"Jason's got one swing. His swing needs some versatility. How many times have we seen him get fooled on an off-speed pitch and one-hand it into centerfield?," Jones said.

"He swings and misses because he takes the same swing. He's had some mechanics that have been a little iffy that he is trying to work out. You show me a .300 hitter and I'll show you a guy who is going to take five different swings.

"He takes a two-handed swing. Have you ever seen him take a one-handed swing? I haven't either? How many times have you seen me get fooled on a changeup away and one-hand it through the (pitcher's) box.

"You've got to use your hands. He's got a long, smooth swing and until he learns to get some movement (in his hands) and drop them into a slot, a lot like you would a golf club and let his hands work for him, he is going to struggle.

"We've got to get him back to using the whole field like he did last year."

Is Chipper on to something here? I'd love to see an advanced study on how hitter's change their swing depending on the count or pitch, or at least see a survey of major league players, but don't count me as someone who isn't going to take Chipper's advice on hitting. He only has one World Series ring, an MVP, a batting title, and a .304/.402/.533 career line with 454 (and counting) home runs. Anyway, it looks like Heyward has listened:

Chipper Jones looked him in the eye and initiated a little back-and-forth before Heyward picked up his bat to take his first swings, with Jones, new Braves hitting coach Greg Walker and his associate Scott Fletcher looking on.

“How’s your confidence?” Jones said.

“Man, my confidence is good,” Heyward said. [...]

When it came time to get back into the batting cage, Heyward knew he would have to start from scratch. The only way to erase his bad habits was to eradicate them. So for the first three weeks in the cage, starting in mid-October, he didn’t pick up a bat. [...]

Once they did, Heyward said, Walker has complemented the work he started on his own. Heyward said he’s gotten a big lift from watching video with “Walk,” “Fletch,” and “Chip,” comparing his swing from 2010 and 2011. Walker agrees.

“Everybody that’s seen Jason swing the bat so far is excited about where he is,” he said.

The entire article is worth reading, but to recap: Jason Heyward is healthy, he has put in the effort to fix his swing and everyone is excited about it - including Chipper Jones.

Let me finish with one last question, did anyone who answered False to the second question in the pop quiz want to take back their answer? When players with Heyward's pedigree and talent put in the effort, they tend to have great careers. Remember that fabulous rookie season? My money is on that being his baseline.

Self Promotion Time!

2012-02-02T12:06:00.000-05:00

Hey fans,

As you all know, Ben's Baseball Bias isn't a fantasy baseball site and although I will occasionally post about fantasy baseball here (sometimes I can't resist the urge!) I now have another avenue for that as I will be writing fantasy articles for BaseballReflections.com and Fantasy Baseball Tools throughout the season.

My first post at BaseballReflections.com is already up and can be found here.

I hope you will continue to read me here as well as elsewhere on the interweb!

So long,

Ben

Prospects!

2012-01-31T11:57:00.000-05:00

As we inch closer to Opening Day I will have several team and player specific posts regarding the top prospects and minor league systems in baseball, but for now to hold you over I would like to guide you towards the top 10 prospect lists on each team via Baseball America.

Some things of note:

The Mariners, Braves, A's and Diamondbacks have a lot of pitching depth. This would explain why trading Pineda "ain't no thang" to the Mariners' future pitching rotation and why the Braves were glad to part with Derek Lowe and have additionally been shopping Jair Jurrjens.
The Nationals may have traded 3 of their prospects to the A's for Gio Gonzalez, but they kept their top two, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, and both should help the Nationals build a formidable lineup to pair with their strong rotation.
Either the Mets have one of the strongest systems in baseball or Wilmer Flores is quickly becoming a bust.
Future, Sweet Player Names: Didi Gregorius, Bubba Starling, Jon Schoop and Scooter Gennett.

Prince Fielder, Holy Sh*t!

2012-01-26T12:57:00.001-05:00

Question: What do you do when your everyday DH gets injured for the season and is still owed $38M until 2014?

Like father, like son. Fat. (Sports Illustrated)

Answer: You go out and sign another DH to a 9-year contract worth $214M!

That solution doesn't seem appropriate to the problem at hand, but nonetheless that's exactly what the Tigers did yesterday when they reached an agreement with Prince Fielder.

The next question then is, was this a smart decision? The short answer is no - signing Prince Fielder and his body type (5'11'' and at least 275 lbs) to the 4th largest contract in baseball's history isn't likely to produce fine results towards the middle and end of the contract. I'm not sure anyone's body will age like a fine wine, but Prince's may just have an earlier expiration date than most. However, the Tigers are also paying Prince to play right now, and right now the Tigers are trying to win a World Series. As they say, flags fly forever, and Prince should help the Tigers raise a flag in the near future.

By how much though? It's important to note that the Tigers aren't simply upgrading their division winning roster with Prince Fielder, he's replacing Victor Martinez who was pretty good himself last year, as David Schoenfield notes:

2011 Victor Martinez: 91 runs created, 389 outs made, 6.34 runs per 27 outs (595 PAs) 2011 Prince Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs made, 8.29 runs per 27 outs (692 PAs)

If we extrapolate Martinez's 2011 season to 692 plate appearances, we get:

Martinez: 106 runs created, 452 outs Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs

In sabermetric analysis, every 10 runs is roughly equal to one win. So Fielder created about 24 more runs while using up 29 fewer outs. That's an extra game's worth of outs for the Tigers, or roughly an additional five runs. So under this very rough cut (leaving aside ballpark effects and so on) we're talking about 29 runs -- or three wins.

The Tigers won 95 games last year, add the additional 3 wins that they will get from Prince Fielder and they're a 98 win team, and one of the favorites in the American League, right? Wrong. The Tigers run differential last year was that of an 89 win team, making the Tigers a 92-ish win team with the Prince Fielder addition.

Prince Fielder maintains the Tigers edge on division that they had before the Martinez injury, so in the short run it's not necessarily a dreadful signing for them. But 9 years and $214M is a lot of money for a 3-win upgrade, to say the least.

If the Tigers win a slew of pennants or the World Series in the upcoming years they can rationalize to themselves that it's all worth it. Me? I'll believe it when I see it and what I see is the year 2015 with two, $22M+ DHs hoping to get on base at a higher clip than their weight with a fanbase who has long forgotten about a couple of now meaningless division titles.

To change gears for a second, as a baseball fan I am definitely excited by this deal. I'm excited to hear the backlash against Scott Boras. I'm excited to see Miguel Cabrera possibly play third base, a position he played several years and several pounds ago. And I'm excited to see what Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will do together, which also means I'm excited to read sportswriters ramble about how much this will help Cabrera and bloggers-in-their-mother's-basements argue that assumption.

How many days until opening day?

אֵיפֹה Prince Fielder Going?

2012-01-25T12:01:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I had an entire post lined up talking about the Prince Fielder market. It is now safe to say that post is outdated, but I was happy with the headline and I'm going to post it here anyway. A more appropriate Prince Fielder post is coming soon, but for now you are stuck with a brief Hebrew lesson.

And for those of you who did not spend a few months in ulpan in Israel, אֵיפֹה (eyfo) is Hebrew for where.

Quick Thought: Marco Scutaro

2012-01-25T11:17:00.000-05:00

The Boston Red Sox traded short stop Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies for pitcher Clayton Mortensen. I find it a little odd for the Sox to trade a league-average (if not a top 10) short stop when they don't necessarily have a short stop for a decent-at-best-pitcher in Mortensen, but it sounds like this is a move to free up money for Roy Oswalt.

It's not every day that you hear the Red Sox needing to trade away salary to afford bargain priced Roy Oswalt ($8 million), but it's apparently what's in store. If the Red Sox sign Oswalt, this trade should be fine as they have bigger holes in the rotation over their potential short stop platoon (Nick Punto/Mike Aviles). However, if they don't sign Oswalt, this trade would have to be considered a loss for the Red Sox, because they would have essentially traded their starting short stop for nothing (my apologies Clayton Mortensen).

Jamie Moyer Returns!

2012-01-18T20:39:00.001-05:00

YES! After sitting out all of last year recovering from Tommy John Surgery, 49 year old starting pitcher Jamie Moyer is now back after signing a minor league deal with the Colorado Rockies for an invite to Spring Training

Did I mention that Jamie Moyer is 49 years old?

I don't know about you but I am very excited by this news. Years ago I was rooting hard against aging, hoping for Julio Franco to play at 50 years old but he had to hang up his cleats after the 2007 season at age 48 when he had little left as a pinch hitter (although he did steal 2 bases so maybe the Mets and Braves just weren't taking full advantage of his skillset). Now, I'm rooting for Jamie Moyer to pitch well enough this year so that he can come back next year and pitch at 50 years old.

The real question now is, what can we expect out of Moyer this season if he makes the team? I wish I had a good answer but unfortunately there just aren't too many people to compare to Jamie Moyer, a/k/a 49 year old pitchers coming off of Tommy John Surgery. Over his last three years (2008-2010) Moyer had a 4.40 ERA over 470 innings pitched with a pretty darn impressive 97 ERA+ given the circumstances (you know, his age). I'd obviously hesitate to project near league average production from Moyer next year in Coors Field.

I'm not sure where to put this tidbit so I'll just randomly put it here: In 2010 Jamie Moyer's average fastball velocity was 80.2 MPH. Has there ever been a non-knuckle baller that averaged less than 80 MPH on their fastball? And, will Moyer be the first, or will the Tommy John give him more arm strength like some people claim? Is it possible Moyer will be throwing 90 MPH darts? I doubt it, but I also would have doubted I'd ever see a 49 year old pitching in Colorado.

Finally, because I sometimes can't let things go:

Player A:

267 wins, 104 ERA+, 47.3 rWAR

Player B:

254 wins, 105 ERA+, 39.3 rWAR

Explain to me this, why is Jack Morris gaining momentum in Hall of Fame voting again? He's Player B.

Yankees Roundtable!

2012-01-17T19:03:00.001-05:00

It's been a little while since I've gathered the Yankees Roundtable gang together, but a big Yankees trade in the midst of what was a quiet offseason is as good a reason as any to start up a conversation with my good 'ole (Yankee) pals Jeff and Steve!

Question:

I'll make this question quick, thoughts on the recent Yankees/Mariners trade and the Hiroki Kuroda signing?

Steve:

Considering some key contextual items surrounding this mega-deal, you gotta love the Montero for Pineda trade for the Yanks.

I'm sure this one hurts for a lot of Yankee fans. We love prospects. And Montero's a Jesus among prospects. And we love, even more than prospects, rebutting the small-market whiners that we can harvest the farm just like the little guys. With Jesus just sniffing the majors last summer (to the tune of 4 homers and 12 RBI in his first 61 AB's), things were getting pretty exiting.

But the Yanks were always willing to deal Montero. His suspect defense pushed him into the DH slot on the depth chart--an area already cluttered with a queue of aging salary dumpsters, most likely for years to come. Do you let Montero catch, giving up runs to negate the ones he'd produce? Do you keep pushing A-Rod and Teixeira out onto the diamond, until they're incapable of crouching to scoop grounders, so that Montero can DH? Nope, you send off your best trade chip to bolster weaknesses elsewhere--SP.

Considering Cashman already dangled Montero to the Mariners to try to pry Cliff Lee for a playoff run at the trade deadline a couple years ago, getting Pineda (who's 22 and has 5 years left on his deal) is a major haul. Throw in Jorge Campos for Noesi (who had no place on the Yanks, let's be real) and voila. Cashman for the W.

People are chirping (tweeting?) that Pineda might not handle the intense scrutiny of the NY media well. Heard that one before. Might I suggest something equally hypothetical? Pineda and Ivan Nova become best friends, forming a bond impervious to the hurtful Post headlines. In either case, we don't know til we know.

Couple the deal with the signing of Kuroda and all of a sudden you have a rotation twice as good as last year's--which was was just fine, thanks.

Really psyched to see how Pineda develops in pinstripes. Good work, Cash.

Jeff:
Great trade. Simply a great trade, and not just for the Yankees. To call the Yankees the "winner" of this trade is really misleading, as Montero steps right into that Mariners offense as arguably their best hitter, and Noesi can be stretched out to be a solid back end of the rotation starter for Seattle.

But back to the Yankees side of things. I honeslty don't know too much about Jose Campos, but as a 19 year old who has thrown very respectable statistics in the lower end of the minor leagues (14 GS, 2.32 ERA in 81.1 IP, 85/13 K/BB ratio), maybe he can amount to something in a couple of years.

The big fish here is obviously Pineda. He steps right into the middle of the Yankees rotation, and is a nice righty compliment to Sabathia. As Steve eluded to, it's also really nice to know he's under Yankees control for at least the next five seasons. However, just to keep things a little Skip Bayless for a minute, Pineda's second half stats are definitely a cause for concern (5.12 ERA in 58 innings, to go along with 19 BB). Still, he is young, as he only turns 23 this week... oh, and he can hit triple digits on the radar.

Also, as Steve mentioned, it's a positive to trade Montero since he is nothing more than a glorified DH; and with an aging and injury prone Alex Rodriguez on the hot corner, we have to wonder how many years before he becomes the Yankees every day DH (I say over/under of 2 years). Yes, Montero can hit, but hitting hasn't been the Yankees' problem. Even with an aging lineup, they still manage to be among the top offenses in baseball, and this was without Montero in the lineup. Where the Yankees have really struggled since 2009 is to have their starting rotation defined past Sabathia.

I'll use that thought to segway into the Kuroda signing. I know he put up good numbers in LA, but it's also LA, one of the notorious hitters parks, to go along with playing in the National League. I'll admit, it's the Skip Bayless in me acting up again, I just am curious how the combination of his age and the transition to the American League will inflate his statistics. The biggest reason, however, why I don't like this signing is that it delays the call up of Killer-B #1, Dellin Betances. With an impressive start to end the season against Tampa, and the statistics to back it up in the minors, I, at least, would have liked to see Betances competing for the #5 spot in the rotation this season. Now, with Kuroda and Pineda added to the rotation, there is simply no room for Betances, this season at least.

At the end of the day, despite my concerns, these two moves are exactly what the Yankees needed. There should have been no concern about the offense, or the bullpen, during the offseason. The concern stems from who fits into the rotation beyond Sabathia. Now, with these acquisitions, that answer becomes much simpler. I would have to say at this point the rotation looks like: Sabathia / Pineda / Nova / Kuroda / Burnett. Garcia replaces Noesi in the bullpen as the 6th starter / long arm, and Hughes probably gets pushed back into the bullpen; which while I don't like this, it helps knowing that Chamberlain is down for the season from TJ.

One final point... with the Pineda/Kuroda acquisitions, do the Yankees now have the best rotation in baseball, let alone the American League? I say no, but they're certainly making progress. In the National League, I still think the Giants and Phillies have better starting rotations. In the American League, it's hard to try and rationalize the Yankees rotation being better than an Angels rotation that just brought in CJ Wilson as their #3; however, the Rays, in my opinion, still have the best rotation in the American League, maybe even baseball. However, while I don't think the Yankees have the best rotation in the American League, these moves put them ahead of the Rays and Red Sox in the division, and certainly keeps them competitive with the rest of the American League, come playoff time.

Ben:

Jeff, solid analysis but to counter your inner Skip Bayless for a moment, the “cause for concern” regarding Pineda is a little overstated. While it’s true his ERA in the second half of 2011 was 5.12 (after posting a 3.03 ERA in the first half), most of the increase was due to regression rather than a decrease in skill. In fact, Pineda had a 3.14 K/BB rate in the first half and a 3.16 K/BB rate in the second half, hard to parse where his skills eroded. Therefore, without a noticeable decrease in actual skill I find their to be less concern (or a concern at all) for his second half slide making the trade a big win for the Yankees especially when you take into account everything that you guys have already alluded too.

I agree with both of your assessments on Montero, and while I would hesitate to peg him as a glorified catcher overall (as the Mariners intend to try him out at catcher) for the Yankees that is exactly what his role would be. Unless you are given extreme circumstances, when offered a top, young pitcher for a DH, you make the trade 10 times out of 10. Oh, it also doesn’t hurt when your top prospect is a teenage catching prospect with power already being compared to Jesus Montero (Gary Sanchez). Trading your excess to fix a weakness? Sounds like a win-win to me.

Regrading Hiroki Kuroda, however, I can’t say I agree with both of you. Jeff, it is exciting and fun to root for the youth to make it to the majors, but in the Yankees situation a “sure thing” is significantly more valuable than a prospect. Kuroda’s age (36) and transition from the National League to the American League certainly shed a little bit of that “sure thing” tag off Kuroda, but given his track record (3.45 ERA in almost 700 innings in the MLB), Kuroda is infinitely more likely to succeed for the Yankees compared to someone like Dellin Betances. Add in the fact he’s only a one-year commitment for the Yankees at a bargain-price for $10 million, and I have nothing bad to say about the signing.

To answer your last question Jeff, I’d actually say yes, the Yankees do have the best rotation in the American League, and it’s because of the Kuroda signing. The Yankees rotation is #1 in my book because of depth. They may not have another ace to pair with Sabathia but they have 5 solid starters, with several more waiting in the wings for the inevitable injury bug. Of course, all of this goes out the window if Matt Moore pitches like he can in 2012.

Is it February 19th yet?

Baseball Player Name Hall of Fame

2012-01-17T17:20:00.000-05:00

One of the great things about baseball is its long history which gives us plenty of Sweet Player Names as we already know. However, what I have contributed can only be considered peanuts compared to the work Jon Bois is doing at SBNation. For the Crème de la Crème you have to check out his Second Annual Baseball Player Name Hall of Fame.

And while you are at it, check out last years inaugural class. Hey, at least we both can agree on Ugly Dickshot!

Seriously, it's real!

Quick Thoughts: Yankees/Mariners

2012-01-14T14:08:00.000-05:00

Last night the Yankee and the Mariners agreed to a four player deal with the Yankees sending potential catcher and "savior" Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and a young pitching prospect named Jose Campos.

Then seemingly 5 minutes later, the Yankees turned around and signed starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year $10 million deal.

Some quick(ish) thoughts:

First and foremost Brian Cashman played this one pretty brilliantly. After having seemingly everyone convinced the Yankees were doing to have a quiet(ish) offseason and enter the season with a few ?'s in the rotation he goes out and gives the Yankees the best rotation in the AL. Overnight. #stealth
As I just said, these moves give the Yankees the best rotation (and team) in the AL, at least on paper. Less than 24 hours ago the Yankees had several holes in the rotation and right now they have excess parts to spare. Some combination of Sabathia, Kuroda, Pineda, Nova and Burnett/Hughes/Garcia gives the Yankees a lot of depth and whether they decide to use it as insurance for injury or trade some of it away, the Yankees are going to be well off.
I would hesitate to say that the Mariners got the short end of the stick in this trade because Jesus Montero is one hell of a building block, but the Padres and A's got 4 prospects for their young pitchers (Mat Latos/Gio Gonzalez) and the Mariners only got one here. Granted, Jesus is better than any of the players the Padres or A's received, but by only getting one guy back the Mariners aren't spreading out their risk.
I'd be lying if I said I knew about Jose Campos before this deal, but he's not just a throw in. He's young (19 years old), big (6-4), throws hard (~92-95 mph) and struck out 85 batters in 81.1 innings last year in the lower minor leagues only issuing 13 walks. There is obviously no guarantee that he becomes a quality major leaguer, but at this stage in their respective careers, he's a better piece than Hector Noesi.
The Mariners will likely be smart and try out Montero at catcher but a lot of Montero's value will be tied to him actually staying there. Although there is a chance he becomes a impact hitter like Miguel Cabrera, in which case it doesn't matter where he plays on the diamond (or at all).
Pineda has all the tools to be an ace (throws hard and accurate), but we shouldn't jump the gun and call him one just yet. He's definitely an ace against righties, but unfortunately there are lefty hitters out there and Pineda will continue to struggle against them until he develops a passable change-up.

There is so much more to talk about (each player's respective ball parks certainly play a huge factor) but we'll get to that in a little bit. Overall considering both moves the Yankees did, I have to say it's a win for the Yankees. But, that doesn't mean it's a loss for the Mariners, as Jesus Montero is a damn good prospect. I can't to see how it plays out, how many days until pitchers and catchers?

New Logo?

2012-01-12T16:07:00.000-05:00

I would be the first to admit that my current logo is kind of silly and horribly made (by me!!!) but you have to admit there is something endearing about it, right?

Well, if that's not the case, you now have an option to change the logo! I have recently used the services of Horrible Logos, and for the price of one beer I have received a potentially new logo for Ben's Baseball Bias:

I am now leaving it to my loyal viewers, should I make the change?

Murray Chass is at it again!

2012-01-12T14:11:00.001-05:00

While I wouldn't like for Ben's Baseball Bias to completely revolve around critiquing other people's articles, sometimes it's just too damn hard to stop, especially when Murray Chass is involved. In his latest ~~blog entry~~ article, Chass talks about next year's Hall of Fame class and what it means for good ole fan boy Jack Morris:

What about next year? Morris’ chances in 2013 could depend on the writers’ reaction to first-timers Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and Mike Piazza. [...]Sosa and Piazza have never been convicted by testing or their own admission, but they may find it impossible to overcome the circumstantial evidence that has grown around them.

The only reason Mike Piazza may find it "impossible to overcome the circumstantial evidence that has ground around" him is because of guys like Murray Chass who have created a false sense of circumstantial evidence based solely on random accounts of back acne.

This same time last year, in January of 2011, Murray chass wrote two different ~~blog entries~~ articles stating that Piazza used steroids based off of back acne.

Attention, Mike Piazza fans and other cynics: A report in The New York Times on Saturday about the Barry Bonds perjury case said that prosecutors said that Bonds’ former girlfriend, Kimberly Bell, “would testify to seeing physical changes in Bonds that are indicative of steroid use, including acne on his back and shoulders…”

If acne is good enough for Federal prosecutors, it’s good enough for me no matter how much Piazza and his supporters scream and whine at my mention of Piazza and the acne that covered his back until it miraculously disappeared when baseball began testing for steroids in 2003 and 2004.

No one has accused Piazza of perjury, but he better be careful with what he says if he ever has to testify under oath.

Keep in mind that Murray Chass is not a doctor and has no basis to discern the cause of Mike Piazza's back acne. Also, it's safe to say it's juuuuuuuust a tad unfair to site "circumstantial evidence" that is completely based off of your own diagnosis and biases that Mike Piazza used steroids.

Jeff Bagwell is having a tougher time than he should getting into the Hall of Fame because of steroid suspicion without any cause. Unfortunately it's looking like Mike Piazza may have the same problem next year because of hacks like Murray Chass, blogger.

Explain to me again why Murray Chass still has a vote?

What The...?

2012-01-12T10:47:00.000-05:00

Player A over the last three seasons: 199.1 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.85 K/BB

Player B over the last three seasons: 191 IP, 1.152 WHIP, 2.78 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.00 K/BB

Player A contract this offseason: 4 Years, $50 Million

Player B contract this offseason: 1 Year, $8.5 Million

By now you realize player A is Jon Papelbon and player B is Ryan Madson, and hopefully by now you realize how the Reds made out like bandits getting Madson and how Ruben Amaro may be regretting his decision to give Jon Papelbon all that cash.

It's true that Jon Papelbon is a more "experienced" closer having saved 106 games in that time frame compared to the 47 that Madson has saved. But it's also true that the closer is a roll, not a skill, and over the past few seasons, Jon Papelbon and Ryan Madson are very, very similar while on the mound. Apparently the Phillies and Madson had a 4 Year, $44 Million offer on the table, which makes the discrepancy between the two contracts now make a little more sense. However, the bottom line is that the Reds played the closer market perfectly, cautiously waiting for the right deal to come around while the Phillies' felt the need to get their closer ASAP and impulsively offered incredibly large contracts for that service.

The Phillies have an outstanding team in "win-now" mode and Jon Papelbon will likely help the team this year. But there is also that little thing called the future, and next year, when Cole Hamels could be a free agent, do you think the Phillies would like to have a little extra money to lock him up? Me too.

Jon Heyman Hearts Jack Morris, Hates Logic

2012-01-09T17:16:00.001-05:00

Jon Heyman and I can both agree that Barry Larkin is worthy of the Hall of Fame. However, we disagree juuuuuuuust a tad when it comes to Jack Morris.

Read what Heyman recently wrote regarding Jack Morris and the Hall of Fame:

Morris' detractors generally point to one unextraordinary number, and while it's an important number, it should not define his career. His lifetime ERA of 3.90 would be the highest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame, and his ERA plus of 105 is barely above average. But Morris pitched deep into his games and deep into his middle age, trampling his lifetime ERA. Morris is known by teammates to have pitched to the score, which enabled him to win more games than anyone else in the '80s and 254 games overall. (The leading winners in the seven preceding decades are all in the Hall.) In seven seasons, he received Cy Young votes. So he had plenty of great years.

Ugh. I am at a loss of things to say. It's not fair to simply excuse Jack Morris' "barely above average" ERA while also giving him complete credit for all of his wins. They go hand in hand, we can't say his ERA would have been better if he retired earlier while also fawning over his career win total which had to happen at the expense of his ERA.

By Heyman's logic, Jack Morris would have a much better ERA if his career ended early, you know before trampled his lifetime ERA. So let's take a look at the numbers.

Jack Morris, if his career ended in 1988 after his age 33 season: 177-118 3.59 ERA, 113 ERA+
Jack Morris complete career: 254-186, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+

Heyman is right, sort of. While Morris' ERA obviously increased it still wasn't all that great, at least not Hall of Fame great as a 113 ERA+ would still only rank 247th all time. There are a few pitchers who's end of career numbers really derail what was a magnificent peak, but Jack Morris is not one of those pitchers.

The best thing a pitcher can do is to not let runners score and I find it highly amusing that Heyman is ready and willing to throw that all of that out the window because, well, Morris pitched deep into his middle age!

Oh, I almost forgot about the whole "pitch to the score" argument! Did you notice how Heyman says "Morris is known by teammates to have pitched to the score"? That's because actual evidence would only disagree with Heyman's statement, who woulda thunk it?

At this point I think Heyman's analysis is suffering as he enters his middle age and I wouldn't be opposed if he retired.

Welcome to the Baseball Hall of Fame Barry Larkin!

2012-01-09T15:43:00.001-05:00

On my ballot, there were 6 players worthy of induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame: Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines and Alan Trammel but this year only Barry Larkin will be getting inducted in Cooperstown on July 22nd. Congrats Barry!

The Results:

Barry Larkin 495 (86.4%), Jack Morris 382 (66.7%), Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0%), Lee Smith 290 (50.6%), Tim Raines 279 (48.7%), Edgar Martinez 209 (36.5%), Alan Trammell 211 (36.8%), Fred McGriff 137 (23.9%), Larry Walker 131 (22.9%), Mark McGwire 112 (19.5%), Don Mattingly 102 (17.8%), Dale Murphy 83 (14.5%), Rafael Palmeiro 72 (12.6%), Bernie Williams 55 (9.6%), Juan Gonzalez 23 (4.0%), Vinny Castilla 6 (1.0%), Tim Salmon 5 (0.9%), Bill Mueller 4 (0.7%), Brad Radke 2 (0.3%), Javy Lopez 1 (0.2%), Eric Young 1 (0.2%), Jeromy Burnitz 0, Brian Jordan 0, Terry Mulholland 0, Phil Nevin 0, Ruben Sierra 0, Tony Womack 0.

Observations:

Jack Morris is gaining momentum and with two years left on the ballot he has a decent chance to get in. On the MLB Network after the announcement of Barry Larkin Ken Rosenthal admitted that although he wasn't a Morris guy, he doesn't necessarily want to end up being "the guy" who didn't let Morris in. That's just pathetic and the sad thing is I'm sure a lot of voters have that mindset, a fear of being different I suppose.
Jeff Bagwell still has a little ways to go (only 56%) but his future is looking promising with many years left on the ballot. Especially when you consider that the only reason he's not already in the hall is because of suspicions, you have to figure that as time goes by without any steroid implications, Bagwell's totals will increase.
Tim Raines also has a ways to go but 48.7% of the vote is a nice increase from the 37.5% he had last year. With Blyleven in, all the bloggers in their mother's basement will certainly keep propping up Raines, and this years increase makes his future HOF chances look decent.
I can't help but think people are voting for Lee Smith because they feel guilty he'll be forgotten since he's no longer the leader in saves. Getting 50.6% of the votes for the Hall of Fame is no small feat and Smith should be proud, but I think he's going to plateau around there.
Alan Trammell and Edgar Martinez both had solid increases from last year but I fear their totals are still too low to guesstimate their chances.
I wouldn't vote for Bernie Williams but I'm still glad he stayed on the ballot.
How did Bill Mueller get 4 votes? As Mr. Angel I could see mustering a vote for Time Salmon, but what did Bill Mueller do to get 4 votes? And Eric Young got a vote? Really?
Steroids are clearly hurting Palmeiro and McGwire's chances and at this point it's hard to imagine either will ever get in.

Hip Hip, Jorge!

2012-01-08T13:13:00.001-05:00

New York Yankees "Core Four" member Jorge Posada is planning to announce his retirement, ending what should be at least a Hall of Fame considerable career.

Jorge is retiring, but it looks like he will
enjoy the extra time off. Wink wink!

Every once in a while Ben's actual baseball bias comes out but I will make this brief, Jorge Posada was one of my favorite players ever, as evidenced by the fact his jersey is the only Yankees jersey I even own. I don't care about his poor throwing arm or any problems that AJ Burnett might have had with Jorge Posada as his catcher, for almost decade and a half Jorge Posada was a rock in the Yankees dynasty and undeniably the best hitting catcher in baseball.

Since Jorge Posada became the Yankees every day catcher in 1998, only Ivan Rodriguez has more fWAR (48.7 to 47.2) and only Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza have higher wRC+. While Jorge may not "seem" like one of the best catchers of all time, there is no doubt that is exactly what he has been. Just because he didn't hit .300 or consistently smack 30 home runs a year, doesn't take away from the fact that Jorge was an offensive beast at the weakest position on the diamond.

We now have plenty of time to debate Jorge's Hall of Fame case so I won't go there...yet, instead I'll just sit back and recall Jorge's finest moments in pinstripes. Whether it's his double off of Pedro Martinez in the 2003 ALCS (the Grady Little incident) or his solo shot (the only run scored all game) off of Barry Zito in the 2001 ALDS (the Jeter "flip" game), Jorge Posada has had a memorable career and he will surely be missed in pinstripes.

NBA Predictions

2011-12-27T14:49:00.002-05:00

Last year I gave you some pretty bad NBA predictions, this year I will do the same thing, only a couple of days late:

WEST

1.) Thunder: Whether or not they take the "next step" (whatever that really means) the Thunder are really good and really young which will obviously help them in the shortened season with more back-to-back (and even back-to-back-to-back games). I don't know if Westbrook and Durant will finally learn to really play together, but I do know that James Harden is really good and is a great breakout candidate. I'm honestly no basketball expert (I'm in no rush to make a Ben's Basketball Bias version of this blog...yet) but I know from watching the playoffs that at the end of the game the offense was running through Harden which certainly speaks well to his talents and the chances of him having a fantastic season for the Thunder.

2.) Mavericks: The short season may show their age but I think their depth will help mitigate that concern. Of course as I write this the Mavericks have looked horrible in the first two games, but I think Rick Carlisle just needs a few games to figure out how to use all of his pieces in the right way.

3.) Clippers: Consider me a 100% buyer on the Clippers. Chris Paul led the Hornets to the playoffs last year, you think he'll be pretty good with Blake Griffin? They have stars (Paul/Griffin), they can protect the rim (DeAndre Jordan) and they have depth (Mo Williams, Eric Bledsoe, Ryan Gomes). Add it all up and they're a contender.

4.) Spurs: They finished with the best record in the West last year and didn't really get any worse so placing them 4th seems more than fair. Yes, they are an older team which hurts them in a shortened season, but I'm not about to rank the Grizzlies over the Spurs over a 66 game season just because they matched up well with them in a playoff series. Duncan, Manu and Parker may not have enough left to grind out a championship, but they're still a top team in the West.

5.) Lakers: Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are an incredible tandem but until Bynum plays a near-full season, we can't consider them a trio. Oh, and after that, the Lakers have nothing unless you count Josh McRoberts as something. Kobe's still a great talent and plenty good enough to grind out some wins when the team just doesn't have it, but I'm having a really hard time placing the Lakers in the top half in the West.

6.) Grizzlies: Good defense + Zach Randolph low post scoring = 6th seed in the west. They may not seem like a special team, because they aren't but when 8 teams make the playoffs, not every playoff bound team is championship caliber.

7.) Blazers: Considering their awful luck in the injury department (Greg Oden and Brandon Roy) it's pretty remarkable the Blazers have been able to consistently make the playoffs. I used to love the Rasheed Wallace era Blazers and I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for Portland.

8.) Nuggets: For lack of a better word, the lockout kind of f*cked them over with JR Smith and Wilson Chandler going overseas to play. However, Ty Lawson looks like the real deal and with Nene, Gallinari and Afflalo the Nuggets should still be an exciting team to watch.

Sleeper:

Warriors: If Steph Curry can stop rolling over his ankle every game, I really like the Warriors chances to make some noise this season. Mark Jackson will get them to play more offense and their uptempo offense should be able to steal a few games from teams playing for the 2nd or 3rd time in a row.

EAST

1.) Heat: The Heat lost in the finals and their season was considered a let down, that's how good this team is. I fully expect the Big Two to dominate all year, leading the Heat to the top seed in the East and the best record in the NBA.

2.) Bulls: Whether or not Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP, the Bulls are hands-down the 2nd best team in the East. Adding Rip Hamilton will also only help Rose as he's a major, major upgrade over their 2-guards last year. I'm not sure where to add this, but I think Omer Asik could be a good one as well, he reminds me of Macin Gortat playing behind Dwight Howard in Orlando, the Bulls should hang onto him.

3.) Knicks: I think people are underrating what Baron Davis will bring to the table once he's healthy and playing (hard) for the Knicks. Plus, even if I'm proven wrong, it's not like a team with Melo and Amar'e need a playmaking point guard. Plus again, they upgraded Rony Turiaf to Tyson Chandler. Plus a third time, aren't we all tired of the Celtics?

4.) Celtics: For all of the flack the Knicks get about their lack of depth, where is the Celtics' depth? They are an older team than the Knicks and behind their starters are guys like Keyon Dooling and Chris Wilcox. However, with that said, Rajon Rondo looked damn good against the Knicks.

5.) Pacers: One tough series in the opening round with the Bulls last year in the playoffs doesn't mean the Pacers are ready to be one of the best teams in the East, but they are certainly on the right path. I liked the David West pickup, $20M/2 years sounds like a bargain and he gives them some depth in the frontcourt that will help them over the course of the season.

6.) Hawks: I'm not sure how a team with such an exciting highlight reel like Josh Smith can be so boring, but that's the Hawks for you. They're pretty good, not great and that's kind of where they've been for the last few years and where I imagine they will be for the next few.

7.) Magic: If they keep Howard all year then they may finish higher, but the chances of them holding onto Howard all year only to lose in the first round of the playoffs without getting anything in return is such a bad decision you have to assume he'll be traded.

8.) 76ers: This years Pacers: a young team that could give a top team a run for it's money in the playoffs. There are a lot of ifs but if Elton Brand stays healthy again and Evan Turner and Jrue Holliday improve their game, they have a chance to be much better than the 8th seed.

Sleeper:

Wizards: John Wall can do some incredible teams and his teammates aren't the worst. Is this wishful thinking for my fantasy team with John Wall? Maybe, but so be it.

AWARDS

MVP: I'd probably be willing to bet my bank account (I know, it's not large but still!) that the Heat will finish as the best team this year and with LeBron being the best player on said team, I think he takes the award (again). If the Thunder finish first, Durant will receive some votes and depending on where Dwight Howard ends up he could garner some as well. Derrick Rose will find it's hard winning two years in a row.

Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving is on a terrible team with some terrible teammates but you need playing time over anything else to win this award, and he should get the most consistent minutes of all of the rookie class. Kemba Walker could also make some noise starting at PG for the Bobcats.

Defensive Player of the Year: As cool as it would be for a guy like Tony Allen to win this award, it generally goes to big men and it's not like Dwight Howard isn't completely deserving, he takes it.

Sixth Man: Since James Harden is my breakout pick and since he still isn't starting for the Thunder, I say he takes this award over Jamal Crawford and Jason Terry.

Quick Thoughts

2011-12-27T13:49:00.001-05:00

I hope you all had and are having a wonderful holiday season but most of all I would like to wish my dear, loyal readers a Happy (belated) Festivus! Last year I even went so far as to create a Festivus song which I highly recommend you all read to really get in touch with your inner Festivus.

Anyway, onto baseball...

The St. Louis Cardinals signing of ex-Giant/Met/Astro/Royal/CF now RF Carlos Beltran for 2 years and $26M is nothing short of a fantastic addition by the Cardinals. Allen Craig was pencilled in as the starting RF for 2012 but he may miss some time as he recovers from offseason knee surgery and in his place, the Cardinals are getting a guy who quietly had a 151 wRC+, essentially meaning he was over 50% better than the average hitter at the plate. Yeah, pretty, pretty good. It's silly to ask who will replace a guy like Albert Pujols, but adding Carlos Beltran to the mix, a full season of Rafael Furcal at SS over Tyler Green and a healthy Adam Wainwright will certainly help. Whle Beltran would benefit from some at bats at DH in the American League and with any thoughts of Beltran playing in CF needing to be quickly dismissed, the fact is Cardinals are getting one of the better hitters in the league on a short, reasonably priced deal. Nice play.

When I heard the Nationals traded 4 of their top prospects to the Oakland A's for starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez my initial thought was that it wasn't a smart move by the Nationals. But then I quickly realized the Nationals traded 3 pitchers (TNSTAAPP) and a catcher (Derek Norris) who has been slipping in recent years for a proven starter in the majors. Oh, and Gio Gonzalez will now be the 3rd starter in what is shaping up to be a very impressive Nationals rotation. Regardless of how you feel about Gio's control issues (he has most walks in the majors over the last two years) a rotation with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez is nothing to sneeze at. It's really a shame they still owe Jayson Werth $116M, because the Nationals really have the building blocks to a contending team.

As far as the Oakland A's side is concerned, while it's not a bad deal by any means (they certainly got more in return for Gio Gonzalez than they did for Trevor Cahill) I'm not sure I love it for them either. Maybe I'm being delusional by thinking of the rumors that the A's were asking for Gio (Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and more) and comparing it to those unfair expectations, but you would still like to get more quality than quantity in a deal like this. However, the A's still have a solid defense and a lot of foul ground to help out their rotation, and if any of the starters they acquired (AJ Cole, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone) work out, the A's would be acquiring a Gio replacement with everyone else being considered gravy.

Since the free agent frenzy during the Winter Meetings, not much has been said about free agent first baseman Prince Fielder. Yes, we hear the same rumors, rumblings and grumblings about teams like the Nationals and Rangers still being interested in Fielder, but those mostly come from Scott Boras' mouth AKA Jon Heyman. At this point it seems silly to even guess where Fielder will end up as none of the rumored teams really make all that much sense, at least not at the ~$150M+ pricetag that Prince will command:

Texas Rangers: Prince is definitely an upgrade over Mitch Moreland but with Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton currently not signed long term and Michael Young without a position, is signing Prince Fielder a smart move?
Chicago Cubs: It's really hard to get a read on the Cubs right now. Currently Theo is doing a great job bargain shopping (David DeJesus) but it's unclear if he's willing to cash it all in this year. Fielder's contract will be more manageable when Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano come off the books, but replacing bad contracts with another potentially bad one isn't a shrewd move Theo likes to make.
Baltimore Orioles: Their entire roster (especially the rotation) is too far behind everyone else in the division to rationalize spending on Prince.
Seattle Mariners: Another team that is hard to get a read on. On paper this kind of makes sense, but it reeks a little too much like the Nationals signing Jayson Werth to gain some respect, and we can see how that's served them so far.

2012 Fantasy Sleeper: Edinson Volquez

2011-12-20T12:32:00.002-05:00

She's going to need a new shirt, or none
at all. I have no preference.

James Shields, Wade Davis, Matt Garza and Gio Gonzalez, those were the names we learned through rumors and whispers that we could expect to be traded, not Mat Latos. But, as we all know now, the Reds acquired Mat Latos from the Padres in return for 4 players: first basemen (and questionable LF) Yonder Alonso, starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, catching prospect Yasmani Grandal and pitching prospect Brad Boxberger.

While Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso are the crown jewels of the trade, cheap, cost-controlled young players with a lot of upside, and Brad Boxberger figures to have as good a chance as anyone to replace Mike Adams and Heath Bell in the back of the Padres bullpen, I'm going to take some time to talk about Edinson Volquez, who just became one of the more intriguing sleepers for the 2012 fantasy baseball season.

Edinson Volquez first made his name when in 2007 he was traded from Texas to Cincinnati for CF Josh Hamilton. Volquez then broke out in 2008, making the all-star game en route to a 17-6 season with a 3.21 ERA. Although he had a less than impressive 4.27 BB/9 he still struck out 206 batters in 196 innings pitched and the underlying numbers looked promising too as Volquez had a 3.60 FIP and accumulated 4.2 fWAR, pretty impressive for a player in his first full season at age 24. Nevertheless, the curse of Dusty Baker reared its ugly had when Volquez needed Tommy John surgery the following season after just 9 starts. Then in 2010, things got messy as Volquez was suspended 50 games for performance enhancing drugs. He finally made his 2010 debut following Tommy John Surgery in July and finished the season 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA, continuing to illustrate his lack of control (5.03 BB/9) while simultaneously displaying an ability to miss bats (67 strikeouts in 62.2 innings pitched).

With his 2008 performance still on the radar and the lack of starting pitching on the Reds, Volquez was named the opening day starter in 201l. However, the wheels really came off for Volquez as he finished 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA.

Or did they? Yes, Volquez did post a 5.71 ERA and yes he still struggled to limit his walks (5.38 BB/9) but Volquez also had a very, unsustainable HR/FB of 20.7% where the league average is generally around 11% and Volquez career HR/FB is 12.7%. What that means is Volquez was likely a victim of bad luck, and it shows in his 4.08 xFIP. Now, people may argue with some of the merits of xFIP, if pitchers truly have little control to how many fly balls turn into homers, but nobody would argue that playing in Petco (the best park for pitchers) would have an effect at limiting homers, especially compared to a small bandbox like Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

In effect, what we have here is a perfect formula for a sleeper:

Pedigree: Volquez has proven in the past that he can deliver results (re. 2008) and has a great skill in missing bats as he still ranked in the top 12 in K/9 in the NL even in his horrible season.
Bad Luck: Volquez had a bout of bad luck last year, leading to an ERA that appears uglier than it should. His ERA will have him lower in the rankings than the underlying numbers would indicate.
New Environment: Volquez isn't coming back to the same team (and manager) that he's struggled with the last few seasons. He's entering a new organization and more importantly a new ball park that will benefit him. Further, head coach Bud Black is formerly a top pitching coach and should certainly help Volquez especially compared to the arm-killing Dusty Baker.
Low Pre-season Rating: Tristan Cockroft didn't rank Volquez in his top 75 Starting Pitchers and RotoChamp currently ranks Volquez 147th. It's safe to say Volquez isn't getting much attention, which is needed when you are talking about sleepers.

Volquez is currently getting no love but has the potential to do very well and all you will be risking is a late-round pick. If you needed yet another example of why it pays to not pay for pitching in your fantasy draft or just wanted a good sleeper candidate for 2012 look no further than Edinson Volquez.

Fantasy 5x5 Prediction: 170 IP, 10 wins, 3.75 ERA, 182 Ks, 1.30 WHIP

Quick Thoughts

2011-12-14T16:21:00.000-05:00

Jed's not dead baby, Jed's not dead!

The Red Sox traded oft-injured middle infielder Jed Lowrie and pitcher Kyle Weiland to the Houston Astros for reliever Mark Melancon. Melancon was technically a "closer" for the Astros, meaning he filled that role for a period of time and even got 20 saves. In the AL East and on the Red Sox however, I highly doubt Melancon will be Jon Papelbon's eventual replacement.

So, in the end what this means is the Red Sox traded a startable middle infielder (these things have a lot of value) and a young starting pitcher for a middle reliever. While they certainly had a relative need in the bullpen, they still likely need to find Papelbon's successor and it's hard to call this anything but a big win for the Astros. Also, although it's not as if Kyle Weiland is a top pitching prospect, it'd be a more realistic trade for the Red Sox to swap Weiland for Melancon. Further, as we all know, (most) pitchers have higher success in the bullpen, it's somewhat likely that Weiland out of the bullpen could be better than Melancon as early as this upcoming season. Word is that the Astros plan on using Weiland as a starter, and that's probably the best bet. Lowrie certainly hasn't proved he can stay healthy for an entire season, but the upside here is tremendous. If Lowrie can stay (reasonably) healthy OR if Weiland pitches 150 useful innings it's a win for the Astros, and if both happen it's a downright steal and the exact kind of move the Astros are going to need if they want to succeed in the AL West in the future.

UPDATE: The Red Sox have now also signed ex-Twins, ex-Cardinals IF Nick Punto to a two-year deal. This move makes the Lowrie trade make a little more sense, as Punto is a capable backup middle infielder. So long as he doesn't have to start, this move makes sense, but I still have to believe they spent too much for Mark Melancon.

Speaking of the Twins, they have agreed to a deal with OF Josh Willingham believed to be worth $21M over three years. Essentially with this move the Twins have traded Michael Cuddyer for Josh Willingham and a couple of additional draft picks that they will receive when Cuddyer signs elsewhere (Rockies most likely). Nice play. While Willingham doesn't fit the normal Twins player profile of speedy, slap and average hitter (.257 average over the last 3 seasons) he will still hit having averaged a 125 OPS+ over the last few years and will certainly improve their lineup which needless to say, needs a lot of help (probably because they generally prefer guys like Nick Punto).

The Brewers, moving on from the Prince Fielder era have signed third basemen Aramis Ramirez to a 3-year $36M deal and SS Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal. The Brewers weren't going to make up Prince's production at first base, but they could spread out (some of) that money all over the diamond, and this is a great start. Last year Brewers' third basemen batted .222/.273/.341 with a 65 wRC+. It's safe to say that Aramis Ramirez should add 3-4 additional wins. Also, although Alex Gonzalez may not hit much better than their former SS,Yuniesky Betancourt, he should be worth an additional win or two just with the upgrade in the glove with Alex Gonzalez being about league average and Yuniesky Betancourt being the worst fielder in the National League.

Next, the Brewers have to think about finding a replacement OF for Braun if he is to miss 50 games. After that, the Brewers should still be in a solid position to make a run at the NL Central again in 2012.

Jeff Jacobs: Getting the Treatment

2011-12-14T14:50:00.008-05:00

I don't always bash baseball writers, but when I do, I prefer to use the FJM treatment....

It's been a while since I've come across an article worthy (kind of surprising) but the wait is over - Jeff Jacobs from the Hartford Courant has brought FJM back to Ben's Baseball Bias!

Here. We. Go.

The Agony Of Filling Out A Hall Of Fame Ballot

While leaving an empty box next to Jeff Bagwell's name …

Oy, so that's where this article is going...

Lots of folks have a bucket list, or at least that's the term they assign to it after the 2007 movie with Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman. And while it is probably best to keep most of the Before-I-Croak inventory private, I will share one checked off mine:

We all understood your use of "bucket list" without a need for you showing off your rather impressive knowledge of film history. And for what it's worth, while I'm not positive, I'm pretty darn sure the term bucket list wasn't coined by whatever schmuck wrote that money-grab movie for Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman like Catch-22 was by Joseph Heller. Look, I can make references that make me look cool too!!!

Cast a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Fair enough. I would also like to cast a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame and since you have shown no evidence of being worthy of having a vote, I think I have just as good shot at this!

The first hint reality wouldn't be nearly as romantic as the dream arrived in the form of Michael Felger, Boston television and radio provocateur, in the Patriots locker room in 2008.

I'm not sure if I even understand this sentence, but let me try: The first hint of reality that checking off casting a vote for the hall of fame off of your bucket list wasn't going to be as romantic as the dream that you had to check off of your bucket list that you cast a vote for the hall of fame arrived in the form of a human being in the Patriots locker room in the year 2008 named Michael Felger? I think I got it!

He pointed out I was the only new voter from the Boston chapter of the BBWAA that year and the Jim Rice ballot could come down to one vote either way. He offered two words of advice, "Be ready.

Wait, you actually have a vote!

The two words scared me so much sabermetric decimal points started running down my leg.

Can we get confirmation that it wasn't diarrhea?

Didn't want to be wrong.

Too late.

Didn't want to be labeled a homer.

Too late.

Certainly didn't want to be the over-interviewed schlep known for holding Rice's fate in his hands.

So rather than simply voting for who was deserving, you took into consideration homers from Boston telling you to vote in line with their own biased opinion? And you still have a vote for the Hall of Fame?!?!?

I studied every statistical argument for a month,

Did you make sure to study how much Rice was "feared"?

survived a near cerebral hemorrhage when it was forwarded to me that Roy White was better than Rice,

Jim Rice: 41.5 career WAR
Roy White: 44.5 career WAR

The side effects from your near cerebral hemorrhage are beginning to show...

voted for Rice and added one line to my bucket list: Live long enough to see Rice elected by more than one vote.

Can someone please explain to me why someone who admits to being afraid to stand up to his opinion gets paid to write about them?

Rice got in by seven, with 412 votes among 539 ballots. Phew, dodged one bullet … only to be dragged into bottomless mire of performance-enhancing drugs. And, man, I have come to hate it.

Jacobs is scared of having Rice's fate in his hands, and now he's admitting he hates voting even more now? So, why does he have a vote?

Few things open you up more quickly to Internet ridicule than releasing your Hall of Fame ballot.

I'd modify that to read "your unreasonable Hall of Fame ballot", but thanks for being open!

You've got your, "Hey, moron, it's not the Hall of Very Good. If you need to ask if a guy is a Hall of Famer, he's not."

At least we can both agree that thinking process is silly.

You've got your, "The guy hasn't had one at-bat in five years, you're a hypocrite for changing your mind." Guilty on that count, I'm voting for Barry Larkin this year after not voting for him the previous two.

Really? Are you sure you don't want to wait to see if anything comes out about Larkin using steroids, you know, just to be safe?

There's the, "You're an imbecile for voting for a compiler [Bert Blyleven]." There's the, "You're an imbecile for voting for a guy who only came up big in big games [Jack Morris]." Guilty on both counts.

Anyone who calls Bert Blyleven a 'compiler' is an imbecile, but so is anyone who votes for Jack Morris.

Jack Morris' Resume:
254 - 186, 3,824 IP, 2,478 Ks 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+
7-4 3.80 ERA in the postseason with the famous 10 inning shutout in game 7 of the 1991 World Series.

He's essentially Jamie Moyer (267 wins, 104 ERA+) with one outstanding playoff performance, which means to say that while he's a great pitcher he's not worthy of the Hall of Fame.

All around you've got numbers nerds who pick their guy, find every conceivable statistic to back their point while ignoring every statistic to the contrary.

Since when are "numbers nerds" automatically considered completely biased pricks? I can't imagine a "numbers nerd" ignoring, well, the numbers. Dissecting all of the statistics and coming to the conclusion that you don't agree with doesn't mean they ignore "every statistic to the contrary".

And if your conclusion is different than theirs, you're not only identified as an imbecile, you're some kind of sicko. Small wonder many voters keep their ballots private.

You're not a sicko, you're just the one ignoring every statistic to the contrary and focusing on Jack Morris' singular playoff performance as reason for him being a Hall of Famer

Yet it wasn't until Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated wrote something last December that I began to wonder if voting for the Hall of Fame is worth the hassle.

Wait, so you haven't answered my question yet, why do you have a vote if you are actively wondering if voting is even "worth the hassle"?

There are places on the Internet where you are called a man playing God if you don't vote immediately for Jeff Bagwell.

There are places on the Internet that say there is no such thing as God!

You are called Joe McCarthy. Posnanski didn't use either term, but he came close.

Joe Posnanski didn't use the term, but in my arbitrary estimation he came close, so I'm going to not-so-subtly insinuate to my readers that Joe Posansnki called people like me Joe McCarthy!

Bagwell never tested positive for steroids. He was not named in the Mitchell Report.
Yet because Bagwell has become, in some voters' minds, a player who used PEDs, Posnanski wrote, "I can't even begin to describe my disgust … it makes me absolutely sick to my stomach.

Remind me again, how is it a bad thing for Posnanski or anyone for that matter, to feel disgusted that someone is being harmed without any actual evidence other than the fact that he played from 1991 to 2005 and was muscular?

"I hate the character clause in the Hall of Fame voting. I think it encourages people to believe their own nonsense, to stand up on high and be judge and jury …I'd rather a hundred steroid users were mistakenly voted into the Hall of Fame over keeping one non-user out."

He wrote, "I would say to those people who would not vote for Jeff Bagwell because they simply believe he used steroids, based on how he looked or some whispers they heard, I have a better idea: Let's just burn him at the stake. If he survives, you will know you were right."

Woah, I really agree with ~~Jacobs~~ Posanski here.

Joe Posnanski is the best sports writer in 2011 America, but it doesn't mean he's 100 percent correct on this issue.

Joe Posanski very well could be the best sports writer in 2011 America, but his adjusted rankings, compared to the league average sports writer (Writing+) are looking even better right now because of writers like you!

Based on numbers alone, Bagwell deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. That part is easy. He hit .297 with 449 homers, eight 100-RBI seasons and had a .948 OPS as well as a Gold Glove and an MVP Award.

Oh, sorry about all of that trash before, Mr. Jacobs, it looks like you and I both agree that Bagwell should be in the Hall of Fame.

Yet because of the sins of his baseball generation, fair or not, Bagwell finds himself in an uncomfortable position.

Oh, f*ck... It's certainly not fair and he's only "uncomfortable" because of people like you who continue to read into something that isn't there.

Bagwell grew up in Killingworth, went to the University of Hartford, so sure, I'm rooting for his eventual induction. Yet we also have heard tens of players like Bagwell deny steroid use over the years only for it to turn out otherwise.

Your logic:

Bagwell denied using steroids ∴ Bagwell may have used steroids.

That makes sense!

We have seen tens of players like Bagwell blow up from a skinny 20 to a cartoon 35.

I don't know what this means.

We have seen tens of players like Bagwell break down physically in their late 30s.

This is simply called aging, most humans do this.

I will never vote for Rafael Palmeiro or Mark McGwire, not in 15 lifetimes, but I also don't want to be part of any witch hunt.

You can't partake in a witch hunt and then simply declare that you "don't want to be part of any with hunt", that's just not fair.

I only want to play the percentages. I want Bagwell's insistence he was clean to be true. I don't want his induction to backfire in an ugly way.

You want to play the percentages, but you don't want to just look at the numbers, this is very consistent!

My view certainly is not foolproof,

That's for sure.

but it's one I'm comfortable with given the uncomfortable parameters. Forget 100 juicers. I don't knowingly want to vote for one.

There is no evidence of Bagwell being a juicer (referring to PED not organge, grapefruit, etc.), therefore if you voted for Bagwell you wouldn't be knowingly voting for one. Is this not obvious to you?

I have wanted to wait a few years to see if anything surfaced. To watch ESPN, Yahoo!, New York Daily News, the Texas media — someone with the resources and vigor — put Bagwell in its headlights and see if he emerges clean.

This is just getting ridiculous. If you simply didn't want to knowingly vote for a user, you would have voted for Bagwell already because there is no evidence to the contrary. And, if something did come out, you'd be safe because you still wouldn't have knowingly voted for a "juicer". But clearly that's not the case, you have your suspicions and are waiting until they are vindicated. I take it back, you are sicko.

I have no intentions of making him wait forever. I will wait another year or two. If the worst thing I do is to make him enter the Hall of Fame with his teammate Craig Biggio, well, that's damning Bagwell with a great blessing.

Yes, I'm sure Jeff Bagwell will take it as a "blessing" that you made him wait X amount of years until you felt it was safe for your unfounded suspicions to subside

I believe in using the 15-year voting period. The years give perspective. They help us look at circumstances differently. There's strength in the process, not weakness.

You have a point. Kind of. The 15-year voting period is useful because people's minds can change, like you graciously admitted regarding your vote on Barry Larkin. It is not meant for people to wait to see if they can gather any dirt on a player.

As much as it infuriates me, I have to agree with BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O'Connell's assessment that the National League MVP vote on Ryan Braun stands even if his positive test holds up. Ken Caminiti and A-Rod kept their MVP trophies after it became known they did steroids in 1996 and 2003. And, yes, the 2011 voters voted on the information they had at the time with Braun. But that's not why Braun should keep his MVP. It is because the test he flunked was taken during the postseason. The MVP is a regular season award and unless it was scientifically proved he was using during the 162 games — even though the award announcement wasn't made until November — I'd argue Braun should keep the 2011 award on a technicality.

Now make new precedent. Immediately. In this case, the BBWAA should make a rule that if a player tests positive for PEDs at any time during the calendar year he wins an award, he loses that award. Set the rules in advance and live with them.

Whatever, that's not so bad.

PEDs have made for a complicated, agonizing world for BBWAA voters. And until someone steps forward with a firm set of Hall of Fame guidelines, it's not going to get any less agonizing.

I have a better idea, remove voting rights from people like you, who chastise people for something that they've never done!

Brace yourself. Next year's incoming Hall of Fame class with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa will bring arguments and name-calling like we've never seen.

Yes, but those players have used steroids- there are these little things called facts that tell us that. There is nothing like that implicating Jeff Bagwell.

In the meantime, peek over my shoulder at my 2012 ballot: Barry Larkin and Jack Morris. That's it. I only hope this doesn't make Joe Posnanski barf or for someone to call me Joe McCarthy.

Joe McCarthy, there I said it, I took your stupid bait!

Jose Reyes to the Miami Marlins

2011-12-06T14:57:00.000-05:00

By now you know the news - Jose Reyes has signed with the Miami Marlins for $106 million over six years for an average of $17.67 million per year. The Marlins first free agent splash, signing Heath Bell, reeked of money poorly spent but this deal for Reyes is actually the opposite.

Entering the season in a new ballpark (also known as an ATM machine) the Marlins figured spend more money than we would normally assume but still, when the Marlins outbid the Mets for their own player you know something is off, or at least realize just how much the Mets financial situation has changed. ANYWAY, the Marlins' biggest concerns this off season were fixing their rotation, third base and center field and by signing Jose Reyes (and moving Hanley Ramirez to third) the Marlins fixed one of their biggest weaknesses and made it a strength. They essentially upgraded Greg Dobbs to Jose Reyes, 'nuff said.

As far as the actual contract is concerned, hamstring concerns included, this is a very fair deal. When Carl Crawford gets $142M and Jayson Werth gets $127M, $106M for one of the best shortstops in baseball who will still be 28 years old when the season starts is almost a bargain, if there is such a thing for top tier free agents. Now, there are legitimate injury concerns that should be mentioned- in 2008 Jose Reyes only played in 36 games and he seems to have chronic hamstring problems, but Jose Reyes doesn't have to play in 162 games to be effective and earn his salary. Last year, Jose Reyes played in 126 games and was still arguably the most valuable short stop (if not player) in the league. Players with Reyes' skill sets tend to age well, and unless there is a major, major injury to Reyes he should more or less be worth what he's getting paid.

As I type this the Marlins have offered Albert Pujols a 10-year contract and have talked with CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle as well, so debating about how the Marlins now stack up to the Phillies and Braves seems irresponsible. At this point in time though, we do know the Marlins have vastly improved the team and look to be competitive in 2012, but for more specifics on their 2012 outlook we'll have to wait a little longer.

As for the Mets however, their 2012 outlook doesn't look so hot and we don't need any additional time in order to make an accurate statement. The Mets decision to hold onto Reyes this season couldn't have backfired worse - not only is he going to a rival but the Mets won't be able to receive a first-round pick as compensation and that's not even considering the top prospects they passed up by deciding to not trade him. I guess winning a grand total of 77 games and getting an extra 2nd round pick in the draft was worth holding onto Reyes, right Mets fans?

Quick Thoughts

2011-12-02T16:14:00.000-05:00

The Dodgers have signed lefty starting pitcher Chris Capuano to a two-year $10MM deal. Playing in the friendly confines of Metco aka Citi Field last year Capuano faired pretty well pitching 186 innings illustrating his health. Although his ERA was relatively high at 4.55, his underlying numbers indicated a better performance, striking out 168 guys only issuing 53 walks leading to a more than respectable 4.04 FIP and 3.67 xFIP. If Capuano can keep up his peripheral numbers from last year, the Dodgers, with a little bit of luck, will have found a solid, cheap option to fill out their rotation. EXTRA: Did you know that Chris Capuano had one of the best pitched games of the year in 2011? On August 26, 2011 against the Atlanta Braves Capuano pitched 9 scoreless innings, giving up only a mere 2 hits while striking out 13 batters without issuing a walk.

In other Dodger news, Magic Johnson is looking to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers along with Mark Walter, the CEO of Guggenheim Partners and Stan Kasten, the former President of the Washington Nationals. Apparently part of Magic Johnson's role would be "recruiting players, when needed", which makes the Dodgers ability to sign Capuano without the aid of Magic that much more impressive.

The Houston Astros are trying their best to lure Tampa Bay Rays GM Andrew Friedman to Houston but everyone in Friedman's camp says he isn't leaving Tampa, at least not yet. Even though Houston is Friedman's hometown I can't blame him for not wanting to return home as the Astros (1) have an awful farm system; (2) will be moving to the AL soon; and (3) the last time I checked, the Astros had somewhere between 4-7 starters on the diamond that wouldn't start for other teams. But hey, at least they have a pitching staff that finished last place in the National League in ERA! To add insult to injury it looks like the Astros are having a hard time convincing anyone to be their GM. Good luck Houston!

New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is set to have throat surgery today, and while it shouldn't effect his pitching you have to wonder how it will effect his shmoozing at his steakhouse in New Rochelle.

Heath Bell, not Will Smith: "I'm Going to Miami"

2011-12-02T12:56:00.000-05:00

The Miami Marlins and closer Heath Bell have agreed on a 3 year, $27MM deal with a vesting option for a 4th year.

Bienvenido a Miami!

While Heath Bell may enjoy to "party in the city where the heat is on, all night on the beach 'till the break of dawn", something tells me the Miami Marlins won't be partying at the end of this contract. Giving a closer $27MM is a big commitment, especially considering the Marlins usually have one of the lower payrolls in the league and just last year they traded Cameron Maybin for 2 relief pitchers - Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb.

The Marlins certainly have (had) a need at closer, but they also have needs elsewhere on the diamond, especially in center field. Did I mention that they traded Cameron Maybin last year for 2 relief pitchers, none of which became a closer (otherwise they wouldn't have signed Bell) and that Maybin would have led the Marlins in WAR last year?

To be fair, Bell is definitely one of the best closers in baseball - over the past three seasons (since he's been closing for the Padres) Bell has averaged a 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 44 saves. However, it should also be mentioned that Bell has pitched in the friendliest pitching environment with some very good fielding and that his K/9 dropped from 11.1 in 2010 to 7.3 last year. Bell still had a wonderful year and it helps to know that the strikeout fall wasn't due to a decrease in veloctiy, but safe to say that isn't a good trend to have.

Jon Papelbon certainly set the bar in terms of closer's contracts this year ($50MM over 4 years to the Phillies) but when Jonathan Broxton gets $5MM, $27MM for Heath Bell is just too much money for a team like the Marlins to be throwing around for what is really just a role, not a skill.

Murray Chass: Excellent Journalism

2011-12-01T18:11:00.003-05:00

As you all know the Red Sox hired Bobby Valentine and there has been a lot of talk on the internets on whether or not he's a good "fit" for the Red Sox. Naturally the one and only Murray Chass has now chimed in!

Now, I don't really care what Murray Chass has to say about anything anymore, seriously, but his latest bit is pretty pathetic:

It’s one thing to be the general manager with your boss, the hands-on – and he has very large hands — Larry Lucchino, looking over your shoulder and hovering overhead. But to be caught between Lucchino and the new manager, Bobby Valentine, who loves to moonlight as general manager, is more than a rookie general manager should have to tolerate.

Consider the ingredients of this mix:
Theo Epstein, the recently departed general manager, has never acknowledged it, but it is widely believed that he walked away from the g.m. job in 2005 as the result of differences with Lucchino.
In the Red Sox search for a new manager, Cherington reportedly favored Dale Sveum but was overruled by the team’s ruling triumvirate: principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner and Lucchino.
Valentine was supposedly Lucchino’s idea and Cherington had to interview him and like him, whether he wanted to or not. It was after Halloween, and there were no gorilla costumes lying around.
Valentine has a history of wanting to control more than the lineup on the field. When he tries it in Boston, maybe Lucchino will block his efforts, or maybe Lucchino will join his efforts and tell Cherington what to do.

I have considered the ingredients of your mix, Murray, and it sounds like you are trying to force a statement (that everything is wrong in the Boston front office/management) when it isn't necessarily true.

Consider these key words in each of your "ingredients":
1) "has never acknowledged it, but it is widely believed"
2) "Cherington reportedly favored"
3) "was supposedly Lucchino’s idea
4) "maybe Lucchino will block his efforts, or maybe Lucchino will join"

If you are going to bash the Red Sox management, use more concrete examples rather than anecdotal evidence and guesses. Plus, if you are going to bash them for hiring Bobby Valentine, and want us to believe you are unbiased, don't quote yourself as saying “He doesn’t like me and I don’t like him” when referring to Bobby Valentine.

Just a suggestion.

2012 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

2011-12-01T16:45:00.006-05:00

The 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot has been released by the Baseball Writers Association of America, which means it's time for me to talk about each man on the ballot!

And if you're interested in history, here is my 2011 ballot.

This hideous goatee may be
hurting Bagwell.

Jeff Bagwell: Yes. It seems silly to even waste my time stating how Bagwell is deserving, but sadly not everyone is on the same page as Bagwell only received 41.7% of the votes last year. According to fWar (Fan Graphs' version of Wins Above Replacement) Bagwell ranks 10th all time for 1B, which may not sound that impressive but know that it's higher than Rod Carew, Eddie Murray, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey and Ernie Banks who are all enshrined in Cooperstown.

Jeromy Burnitz: No. Burnitz was known for being an ex-Met, hitting a lot of homers for some really bad Brewers teams, having a late-career Coors Field boom, and being known as an all-around good clubhouse guy but a Hall of Famer he is not.

Vinny Castilla: No. Speaking of Coors Field I'm not sure that any player benefited more from their home park than Vinny Castilla did while playing for the Rockies at the height of the steroid/non-humidor/inflated numbers era in Colorado. At his peak, Castilla was hitting over .300 with 40 home runs which sounds Hall-worthy until you realize that during those 5 peak years his OPS+ was only 109 (meaning his OPS was only 9% better than the average major league hitter). And outside of Coors, well he was never good, leading to a very underwhelming career OPS+ of 95. Solid player, great fantasy 3b, not a Hall of Famer.

Juan Gonzalez: No. If it's possible to hit over 40 home runs 5 times, win 2 MVP awards and not be considered even a debatable Hall of Famer, Juan Gonzalez is your guy. He hit a lot of homers and drove in a ton of batters, enough to fool the BBWAA twice for MVP awards he didn't deserve. He also couldn't stay healthy, refused to take a walk and was a DH playing Right Field.

Deion Sanders wasn't the only 2-way player for the
Falcons/Braves.

Brian Jordan: No. Great fielder, vastly underrated baseball player and solid defensive back for the Atlanta Falcons, but not a Hall of Famer.

Barry Larkin: Yes. He's basically achieved everything a major league player could achieve, and it's a shame he wasn't elected last year. However, having received 62.1% of the votes in 2011 it looks like he is on his way to being inducted in 2012.

Javy Lopez: No. Lopez was probably the most over looked Braves during their division winning dynasty days, then he hit 43 homers in 2003, signed with the Orioles the following year and was out of baseball in three seasons.

Edgar Martinez: Yes. I don't care if he was "only" a designated hitter (hint: he wasn't), go back and look at his on-base percentages, clean up your drool and tell me he's not a Hall of Famer.

Don Mattingly: No. One of the pre-requisites for a lot of Hall of Famers is healthy and durability, and unfortunately Donnie Baseball had neither.

Fred McGriff: No. I'm not holding it against him that he didn't hit 7 more home runs to get to 500, I just don't think he was quite good enough. He was a solid 1b for a long time and put up some very impressive counting stats, but when you think about it like that so did a lot of other players and McGriff's numbers aren't impressive enough at the position he played.

Mark McGwire: Yes. Since we'll never know everyone who used steroids and everyone who didn't, I'm not automatically dismissing McGwire from the Hall of Fame. With that said the dude hit 583 homers and had a 162 career OPS+, not to mention how he averaged over 60 home runs a season over a 4-year stretch. If one pre-requisite for the Hall of Fame is durability, another is being one of the best players during your time, and McGwire most certainly was.

Jack Morris: No. I won't waste much time here talking about Jack Morris because I'm sure an article by Dan Shaughnessy's ballot will force me to write many more in the near future. Bottom Line: One World Series pitching performance doesn't make you a Hall of Famer.

Bill Mueller drove in Dave Roberts
after his now famous steal. Barf.

Bill Mueller: No. If, and when, a Red Sox fan creates a Best Hitters Against Mariano Rivera Hall of Fame then I'll gladly route for Mueller's inclusion, but until then he's staying out of Cooperstown. And in case you were curious, for his career Mueller was 6/17 with 1 HR and 4 RBI against Mariano including the game tying hit in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS.

Terry Mulholland: No. He pitched for 11 teams, threw a no-hitter, made an all-star game, and continuously went from starting to spot starting to relieving back to starting again becoming one of the generations best "rubber arms". Pretty cool.

Dale Murphy: No. It'll be a shame if great players like Dale Murphy are forgotten because they are just not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame but that doesn't mean we ought to vote in every player that's not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame. However, Murphy still won 2 MVPs and was one of the best, if not the best, OF for several years in the National League.

Phil Nevin: No. I'll always remember Phil Nevin for being a huge part of many a fantasy baseball team name "I Ain't Nevin Scared", but I may not always remember him for being a great baseball player because he wasn't.

Rafael Palmeiro: No. If Fred McGriff played half of his games in Texas his career would probably look like Rafael Palmeiro's which means to say that I wouldn't vote either in the Hall of Fame.

Brad Radke: No. Brad Radke threw a lot of innings, gave up a lot of hits and home runs but hardly walked anyone, finishing his career with a1.6 BB/9 ranking 32nd all time.

Tim Raines: Yes. It's pathetic that he hasn't been inducted yet and even more so that he only received 37.5% of the votes last year. If you need to be convinced that he's worthy, check this out.

Tim Salmon: No. I'm glad that Mr. Angel was able to win a World Series with them in 2003 and he's certainly deserving for their Hall of Fame but for the rest of us he may soon be forgotten. He does have a cool factoid though that may keep his name alive from the always reliable Wikipedia: "Salmon's career home run total is the highest for any player in MLB history who played most of his career after the first All-Star game in 1933 to have never been selected to appear in an All-Star Game."

Ruben Sierra: No. A lot of people have been joking about Bill James' Hall of Fame predictions from 1995 concluding that Ruben Sierra would be inducted in 2017, which in 2012 seem ridiculous. In his early years Sierra did profile as a potential young star and future hall of famer, but something happened in the 90s and Sierra became a glorified pinch hitter for the remainder of his career.

Lee Smith: No. His only chance of making the Hall of Fame was when he had the record for most saves and now that he's only third he won't make it, which is good because he doesn't really deserve it.

Alan Trammel: Yes. He's one of the best shortstops of all time, it's as simple as that.

Larry Walker: No. Just like last year, this one was very tough for me but I'm not changing my vote. Again though, it must be mentioned that he wasn't just a product of Coors Field, he would have (and did) hit in any park and would continue to play a great right field. Also, it must be mentioned again that he had one of the best fantasy seasons of all time in 1997: .366 average, 49 homers, 130 RBI, 143 runs and 33 steals. If that happened this year he would have finished first in the major leagues in average, homers, RBI, runs and 15th in stolen bases.

Bern, baby Bern!

Bernie Williams: No. In 2002, Bernie Williams was 33 years old and just hit .333/.415/.493, one of his best seasons and at that point in his career he had over 1,800 hits 226 homers and a .308/.392/.493 batting line. It didn't seem so out of the question that if he could keep that up for a few more years he would start entering the Hall of Fame debate. Unfortunately however in 2003, Bernabe Figueroa Williams' production slipped, batting .263 with less power and he never recovered, retiring in 2006 at the age of 37. Although he won't be arriving in Cooperstown (at least in bronze form), Bernie has had a successful post-baseball music career.

Tony Womak: No. Last year Lenny Harris' name on the ballot provided some laughs, this year it's Tony Womak providing the comedy. Tony Womak was never a good fielder (career -46.8 UZR/ -2.7 dWAR) and couldn't swing a bat (career 72 OPS+). He did however steal 72 bases once and had the game tying hit against Mariano Rivera in game 7 of the 2001 World Series with the Diamondbacks. Damn, this ballot isn't too kind to Mariano Rivera!

Eric Young: No. Eric Young is like having the best season of Tony Womak's career, but for 10 years, not a Hall of Famer, but at least a solid player. Plus he's also given us Eric Young Jr. who is just like the real Tony Womak. Next up: Tony Womak Jr., the clone of Eric Young Sr.!

Recap

Yeses: Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines, Alan Trammel

Close Calls but No: Larry Walker, Fred McGriff,

Why the F*ck are you on the ballot: Tony Womak

What say you?

MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agent Predictions Part II

2011-11-04T12:31:00.000-04:00

Yesterday I piggy-backed on the MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 free Agents with my own predictions of the top 10. Today we continue with Part II, 11- 20:

11. Michael Cuddyer - Twins. Gaining second base eligibility made Cuddyer a hot commodity in fantasy baseball (hello 20 HR 2B!), but unfortunately for him that doesn't carry over to "real" baseball. Other teams will certainly be interested, but I don't see him leaving.

12. Mark Buehrle - White Sox. The White Sox situation basically totally sucks. They aren't quite good enough to rely on competing next year, and at the same time they have too many expensive contracts to unload and rebuild. I can't pick one team to sign Buehrle over the White Sox, so I'm sticking with him staying in Chicago, but I could see another team sweeping in and signing Buehrle with the weak pitching market

13. David Ortiz - Red Sox. I could see Big Papi leaving the Red Sox situation for wherever the most money is, but I'm not sure that would be outside of Boston. Toronto is certainly a possibility as Tim predicts, but I have him resigning with the Sox, whether or not its begrudgingly I can't say though.

14. Ryan Madson - Phillies. This is kind of similar to their situation with Rollins where they need a closer/shortstop but don't have many other alternatives. If they don't sign Madson, who will close for them? He may get somewhat expensive, but I'd say he's a cheaper option than more "proven" closers like Papelbon and K-Rod, and just as effective.

15. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers. Time and time again he's said he won't pitch on the East Coast and wants to stay in LA, I'm not going to argue with him.

16. Carlos Pena - Indians. Pena may spend the next 3 years signing 1-year deals on teams that are kinda-sorta trying to win, but don't necessarily have the pieces to do it. This year, I think that team will be the Indians. They made their bed by trading for Ubaldo, now they have to sleep in it, but with Pena too!

17. Francisco Rodriguez - Blue Jays. I think the Blue Jays are going to be tied to a lot of the big name free agents on the list, but come up short on a lot of them leaving them with money to spend on less exciting names like K-Rod (although as far as names sound literally, K-Rod ain't too shabby).

18. Roy Oswalt - Rangers. Oswalt's injury concerns and decreasing strikeout rate no longer make him an ace, or elite level starting pitcher, but he still limits his walks and is a solid, consistent starter. And in this pitching market that is attractive. Also, Oswalt always seems to be on the brink of retirement so he will likely only require at most, a 3-year deal. With that said, I see the Rangers doubling down on starting pitching and signing Oswalt.

19. Javier Vazquez - Marlins. Vazquez seems to be leaning towards retirement but the Marlins have stated that they want to acquire 2 more starters, and based off how well he finished last year for the fish, I'll say Vazquez pitches for the Miami Marlins in 2012.

20. Heath Bell - Padres. Bell's K/9 fell from 11.06 in 2010 to 7.32 and he's certainly benefited from playing in Petco over the last few years. There are enough red flags to prevent other teams from signing him (and forfeiting a draft pick) and Bell himself has said he will accept arbitration, so I don't see him leaving San Diego.

Brett Gardner, 2012 Gold Glove Winner?

2011-11-03T20:51:00.000-04:00

This time last year, after Derek Jeter won his 5th Gold Glove I said that it would be the last time that I would write about the award, and in some respects it is, but I just can't help myself.

While the Gold Glove should come down to simply one thing - being a great fielder, the award has taken a life of it's own and really comes down to a variety of factors, other than fielding. Last year I listed those factors:

Hitting. To win a Gold Glove you have to hit. Jimmy Rollins was always a solid fielder but he had to hit 20+ doubles, triples, and home runs to get noticed for his fielding in 2007.
Familiarity. If Player A was worthy last year, he has to be this year! Contrary to what seems to be the popular belief, players have up and down years in the field just like they do at the plate.
Laziness. Just a total lack of effort. Derek Jeter is often "voted" the most overrated player in the league, by people in the league. So, how can those people vote him for the best fielder, when everyone around baseball KNOWS that he's not? They're lazy.
Year(s)-After-Effect. Franklin Gutierrez won the Gold Glove this year even though it was in 2008 and 2009 where he was truly magnificent. It takes a while for the chatter about an under-the-radar fielder to make its way around, and often when he's finally selected he's not necessarily deserving. Gutierrez deserved it in years passed, but this year Brett Gardner should have won it. Expect Gardy to take the hardware home next year, regardless if he plays well in the field or not.
Team Goodness. Forgive my phrasing, but a team has to be good often times for someone to win the award. The Yankees had 3 Gold Glove winners this year (Jeter, Teixeira, Cano) even though you can make a case that neither deserved it.

Regarding the 2012 Gold Glove Award winners I wanted to talk about the Yea(s)-After-Effect - Brett Gardner deserved the award last year so I felt he would appropriately receive the award this year, regardless of how he played. Well, Gardner didn't win the Gold Glove, but it wasn't because he didn't deserve it, and we can look at the chart below (courtesy of Mark Simon at ESPN) to prove it:

In case it isn't obvious, the red represents the range of an average left fielder and the blue represents Brett Gardner's range. Notice how much more blue there is than red, to my eye it looks like that is certainly Gold Glove deserving. I'm not sure I can say it any better than Mark Simon, so I won't even try - "Brett Gardner got robbed." Here's to hoping Brett Gardner wins the 2012 Gold Glove, but I promise for sure this time, that it's the last time I will talk about the award.

MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agent Predictions Part I

2011-11-03T17:57:00.002-04:00

I doubt I'm the first blogger to piggy-back on MLB Trade Rumors' Top 50 free Agents with Predictions list courtesy of Tim Dierkes, but I figured I would give it a go myself. After the offseason I will check back and see how I well (or more likely, how bad) I did.

The top 10:

I'm leaving, you're staying!

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals. Albert Pujols would certainly enable the Blue Jays to contend in the AL East, and I'm sure the Marlins would like to enter their new stadium with a bang, but I just don't see anyone other than the Cardinals signing Pujols. The previously reported extension earlier in the year by the Cardinals was for 9 years ~$200 million. Assuming the Cardinals would make their first offer a lower amount than they could afford, and that they have extra cash after winning the World Series, I could see Pujols signing something in the line of 9 years $240 million.

2. Prince Fielder - Mariners. I loved that the Brewers went for it all last offseason, and that it ended up paying off this year and I would love nothing more than for the Brewers to be able to retain Fielder, but the writing has been on the wall for a while and I just can't see the Brewers ponying up the cash for Prince. While Boras is surely a reason why he didn't receive an extension like Hart, Weeks and Braun did, the fact he's with Boras and that the Brewers were content to make sure all their other key members are in it for the long hall likely means Prince will be leaving. I could see the Cubs as being a match for Prince too, but I'm not sure Theo Epstein wants to build the next Cubs dynasty around a future DH. Therefore, the Mariners are the safest bet since they play in the AL, have money to spend and lack a power bat, or a bat in general .

3. Jose Reyes - Mets. This one is tough. The Brewers need a shortstop in the worst way but if I'm assuming they can't quite afford Prince Fielder, I'm not sure they can afford Reyes, who's injury concerns on a long term deal could really ruin a small market team. With that said, the other teams in need of a SS (Reds, Twins, Giants and Cardinals) don't really have the money to obtain Reyes either. So, while I'm not confident with this pick, I could see the market for Reyes not getting too obscene, and the Mets keeping him.

4. C.J. Wilson -Rangers. Everyone seems to think that he's leaving Texas, but I don't see it, especially if we are already calling them a dynasty.Pitching is definitely thin this offseason and many teams need front-line starting (it's debatable if Wilson is front-line, but he's still the best that's available) but none more so than the Rangers if he ends up leaving. Right now, sans C.J. the Rangers rotation consists of Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison and attempts at making Alexi Ogando or Neftali Feliz a starting pitcher. OK, so that's better than all teams in need of starting pitching, but compared to teams competing for a title - the Rangers may need Wilson the most, and I say he stays.

5. Yu Darvish - Yankees. Resigning C.C. Sabathia allows the Yankees to breathe, but it doesn't mean that their rotation is ready to go for opening day, far from it. Behind Sabathia the Yankees have Burnett, Hughes, Nova, and, well that's about it. While Dave Cameron makes an excellent case to not overpay for Darvish, this is exactly the kind of financial muscle the Yankees should flex. I personally think Darvish would be a better investment than Wilson, and as far as all the other pitchers available are concerned - the Yankees don't need a consistent 3-4 starter, they need a potential 1-2 starter, and Darvish can (potentially) provide that.

6. Edwin Jackson - Royals. Maybe it's because I love Rany Jazayerli's blog, but I agree with him that Edwin Jackson could be a great fit with the Royals.

7. Jimmy Rollins - Phillies. The Phillies are obviously trying to win now, and since Ryan Howard is going to screw them over in a few years anyway, why not add Rollins on top of that and go for it all.

8. Aramis Ramirez - Brewers. This year Casey McGehee's batting line was .223/.280/.346 and Jerry Hairston ended up playing 3B for them in the playoffs. As bad as the Brewers need a shortstop, they also need a 3B, and Aramis is the best one on the market and won't come close to Jose Reyes, or Prince Fielder's contract. Also FWIW, if Aramis is no longer effective at 3B, they do have an opening at 1B - if we work under my assumption that Prince will sign elsewhere.

Carlos doesn't need a uniform to look good

9. Carlos Beltran - Red Sox. Lost in the shuffle of the Red Sox collpase, is that their team is still excellent and a good bet to make the playoffs next year. However, because of that collapse the Red Sox will be making moves, and one of them will be to replace one RF who makes everything look easy and gets shit for it (J.D. Drew), for another in Carlos Beltran. I could see the Giants bidding on Beltran too, but I'll side with the deeper pockets.

10. Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox. Amazing, before this year it was 100% assured that the Red Sox would let (a declining) Papelbon go and put Daniel Bard at closer. Well, a funny thing happened- Bard wasn't dominant and Papelbon had one of the best years of his career. Add in the fact that there is no one one, big market team in need of a closer, I see Papelbon staying in Boston.

Carlos Beltran Returning to New York?

2011-10-27T13:37:00.001-04:00

Apparently the Yankees are interested in signing Beltran to play right field, according to Wallace Matthews' latest report.

The question then is, what's to do about Nick Swisher? It was assumed the Yankees would pick up his $10.25 million option for this year but there simply isn't enough room in the Yankees outfield for Swisher and Beltran, and the Yankees don't want to cut into Jesus Montero's playing time or Arod's healing time at DH, so could a trade be in order?

Swisher and his agent, Dan Lozano, who during the season were given reason to believe the option would be picked up, although not before the Nov. 1 deadline. Now, it seems as if the Yankees front office is weighing one of three options -- pick up Swisher and forget Beltran, sign Beltran and forget Swisher, or sign Beltran, pick up Swisher's option and include him in a trade for a starting pitcher.

It is certainly possible, I suppose, but last I checked, good starting pitching is just a tad more valuable than a right-fielder on a one year, $10 million contract. Also, even the few teams with excess pitching (if there is such a thing) - the Braves, Rays, A's - are highly unlikely to want to trade for Swisher and his price tag.

You can't blame the Yankees for doing their due diligence and research, but I don't see a trade in order. And if a trade isn't in order, I can't see how the Yankees would prefer the older, injury-prone player. You could make a case that the Yankees should have signed Beltran in 2005 when Bernie Williams was playing on borrowed time, but they shouldn't make up for that by signing him now, it just doesn't make sense.

Quick Thoughts

2011-07-10T11:02:00.006-04:00

Some Quick Thoughts and Ramblings as I sit on my bed this Sunday morning:

Before yesterday, Derek Jeter was hitting .257/.321/.329. After going 5-5 against the Rays en route to his 3,000th hit and game winning RBI, his seasonal line now stands at .270/.331/.354. It's not "Jeterian" but hey, it's not "Rey Sanchezian" either.
Jose Bautista hit two (more) homers last night and he now has 31 before we're at the all-star break. Granted the all-star break isn't a perfect half/half split (we're already passed the half-way point) but I wouldn't be surprised if Bautista hit 60 homers this year. This time last year people were wondering 1) How soon until Bautista collapses, and 2) What substances is he using? Now, well, unfortunately there are still a-holes wondering if Bautista is "legit", but we're also now asking if he's the best player in baseball and the answer is probably an emphatic YES.
Todd Helton hit a homer last night and is now hitting .318 with 10 homers and 41 RBI with an OBP inching near .400, in a down year for offense. Helton has an iffy HOF case (seems like people are more appalled by Colorado home/road splits than any steroid suspicions, mind you there are none regarding Helton) but if he can keep picking it at first at getting on-base he'll continue to get PT and help out his counting numbers. Stay tuned...
Boston shutout Baltimore 4-0 yesterday on a great showing by the one and only John Lackey: 6.2 innings, 4 baserunners and 7 K's. Boston has owned Baltimore in this series, I don't know how else to say it other than they have made the Orioles their bitch. 3-0 and the Sox have outscored the Orioles 24-7. Mitch Atkins is on the bump this afternoon for the Orioles as they try to salvage the series, good luck!
Watching Tim Pawlenty on Meet the Press is making me nauseous. In what world is it a good thing to brag about your executive leadership because you "shut down the government" and "set a record number for vetoes"?

Catching up on my predictions

2011-07-09T15:02:00.002-04:00

A few months ago I offered my predictions for the 2011 season, let's take a look back and see how I've done so far:

1.) The Yankees will get into the post season with ease: Well, I probably took it a step to far by saying with ease, but currently the Yankees are 3 games up in the Wild Card, only one game back from the Red Sox in the division lead and, as we all know the Yankees will open up their wallets at the deadline if need be. All in all, I think it's relatively safe to say the Yankees will be playing in the tournament.

2.) The Reds will finish 3rd in the NL Central: Currently the Reds are in 4th place but are only 4 games back from the division lead, albeit 2 games under .500. The standing are too volatile right now to say with any certainty where the Reds will finish, but the point of my prediction was that the Reds aren't all that great, and I think I have a pretty good point. They have some stars (Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Stubbs) and a deep rotation, but I'd take a shallow rotation with some very good pitchers over 7 OK ones.

3.) Breakouts: Jay Bruce, Shaun Marcum, Pedro Alvarez, and Cameron Maybin: Meh, I could have done better. Bruce is hitting more homers and helping his fantasy baseball value, but he hasn't been a better baseball player this year. Shaun Marcum has been very good but he was also very good last year, and I wasn't too bold in saying he'd benefit from a switch to the NL. Picking Pedro Alvarez to break out could be grounds for you to stop reading this blog and Cameron Maybin, well, he's been solid but it's safe to say my Breakouts haven't really broken out...yet!

4.) Busts: Carlos Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz, and Josh Hamilton: I've been a little more successful here. Maybe I'm just negative and better at predicting failure over success, or maybe critiquing silly pre-season predictions half-way through the season is stupid, maybe. Anyway, Carlos Gonzalez is a great player and it's nice to see him increase his plate discipline, but he probably won't be competing for any triple crowns this year, or ever rather. Clay Buchholz is a good pitcher but he was very lucky last year, this year he's just been, well, lucky. Last year he had a 2.33 ERA when it should have been about 4, this year it's 3.48 when it should be about 4. Josh Hamilton is really good at hitting baseballs, he's also really bad at staying healthy, and anyone who puts up 8.7 fWAR in 133 games is due to regress.

5.) At least one team will start off hot, get a lot of press and then cool off: Hmm, the Indians started off hot, got a lot of press, then cooled off, they're also still in first place. Time will tell, but I have a good feeling about this one, sorry Tribe!

6.) We know the Royals will stink, but they're going to be historically awful: The Royals are bad, but they're not historically bad and the Astros are actually worse. Plus, even if the Royals start playing historically awful, there is a buzz about the team with the young cavalry entering (Hosmer, Duffy, Moustakas, etc.) that makes this prediction look silly.

7.) Jesus Montero will be an adequate catcher, for the Yankees: Russ Marin surprisingly hit .293/.376/.587 with 6 homers in April holding off any calls for Montero to be called up. However, since April Russ has hit only.184/.294/.289, woof. Montero hasn't been that great himself (and currently is on the 7-Day DL in the minors) but it's clear he's the best option the Yankees have at catcher, and there is still ample time for him to be an adequate catcher for the Yankees this year.

8.) The A's win the division: Wow, this looks bad. Even worse, the Angels are likely going to finish with a better record than the A's. What does that mean to you, you ask? Well, probably nothing, but for me it means I have too cook my 2 roommates a 3-course meal, silly bets!

9.) Ben's Baseball Bias takes the next step: It's hard for this blog to reach a smaller audience, so I have to say this prediction looks very promising!

10.) Nick Markakis will be traded, and then will mash: Definitely a bad prediction, the Orioles seem poised to try to build with this roster, so Markakis will stay there for the remainder of the year but at least Markakis has "mashed" of late hitting .402/.425/.533 since June 8th.

11.) Jose Bautista will hit over 40 homers: Bautista has 29 homers so far, and ZiPS projects him to hit 17 more, barring injury this looks like a safe prediction.

12.) The Red Sox rotation will be dece, but it won't matter: Well, if "dece" means below average the Red Sox rotation has been "dece", ranking 18th in ERA in baseball (4.07). And it hasn't seemed to matter with the Red Sox first in the division. As awesome as Josh Beckett has looked this year, this prediction looks better!

13.) I have no f-ing clue who will win the World Series: This is still true.

After reviewing my pre-season predictions mid-season have we learned any lessons? Yes, that predictions are both a silly exercise and an exercise I plan on continuing because I'm stubborn and it's kind of fun.

Mr. November? More like Mr. 3,000

2011-07-09T14:10:00.002-04:00

Derek Jeter just homered to left field off of David Price for his 3,000th hit!

I have to say, since we've been waiting and expecting this for almost 2 years, I didn't expect to be all excited, but I did get a little giddy watching him take David Price deep for hit number 3,000 just now.

I also got a little giddy watching Arod come over to hug Jeter and hearing him cackle and say "that's unbelievable" before promptly turning around and walking back to the dugout.

I did not get giddy having to hear Michael Kay talk about it however.

Anyways, I'm sure I (as well as every other blogger in the world) will have more on this later, but for now, congrats captain, nice job!

Big Things Coming

2011-01-31T10:54:00.000-05:00

In case you haven't noticed, and I hope that you have, The Bias has been on a little bit of a hiatus recently and I want to take this time to apologize. I pride myself on being able to whip out an inordinate amount of posts, considering the fact that I don't have the viewership to demand such an amount. So, I am sorry for not fulfilling those obligations to you all over the last few weeks.

However, I am happy to say now that the current mini hiatus is officially over. I am finally employed (sans nepotism) and can use my free time to blog once again.

I promise to never take so much time off again and hope that the next few days make up for what I've missed.

Thanks,

Benjamin Pasinkoff

Alomar and Blyleven Welcome to Cooperstown!

2011-01-06T11:39:00.001-05:00

Congrats to Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven, both deserving of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame!

Bert Blyleven gets in on his last try with 79.7% of the vote and after not getting in last year because of reasons like "nobody should ever be unanimous" and mythical idea of a "first ballot hall of famer", Roberto Alomar gets in on his second try with 90% of the vote.

I don't have a vote (yet) but here is my make-believe Hall of Fame ballot and here is how all of the voting went down:

Name	Votes	Pct.
Roberto Alomar	523	90.00%
Bert Blyleven	463	79.70%
Barry Larkin	361	62.10%
Jack Morris	311	53.50%
Lee Smith	263	45.30%
Jeff Bagwell	242	41.70%
Tim Raines	218	37.50%
Edgar Martinez	191	32.90%
Alan Trammell	141	24.30%
Larry Walker	118	20.30%
Mark McGwire	115	19.80%
Fred McGriff	104	17.90%
Dave Parker	89	15.30%
Don Mattingly	79	13.60%
Dale Murphy	73	12.60%
Rafael Palmeiro	64	11.00%
Juan Gonzalez	30	5.20%
Harold Baines	28	4.80%
John Franco	27	4.60%
Kevin Brown	12	2.10%
Tino Martinez	6	1.00%
Marquis Grissom	4	0.70%
Al Leiter	4	0.70%
John Olerud	4	0.70%
B.J. Surhoff	2	0.30%
Bret Boone	1	0.20%
Benito Santiago	1	0.20%
Carlos Baerga	0	0.00%
Lenny Harris	0	0.00%
Bobby Higginson	0	0.00%
Charles Johnson	0	0.00%
Raul Mondesi	0	0.00%
Kirk Rueter	0	0.00%

Some thoughts:

Barry Larkin should get in next year in what will be a very weak ballot, at least considering who the voters are going for.
Jack Morris' chances of getting in are on very thin ice. He barely improved this year (up only 1.2%), only has 3 more years left on the ballot and faces very tough competition in the future with the ballots in 2013 and 2014 looking stacked. If Morris is going to get in, his best, and maybe only chance, is next year on a weak ballot before Bonds, Clemens, Mussina, Glavine, Maddux, Piazza, Biggio, Sosa and Frank Thomas enter in '13 and '14.
Kevin Brown, WTF! I can't really complain too much because I didn't vote for the guy, but there is a very strong argument for his inclusion and for him to not get another chance (having received less than the 5% benchmark to stay on the ballot) is very disappointing.
I would have obviously liked to see Bagwell make it as I think he's arguably the most qualified on the list, but a 41.70% showing isn't the worst thing. It doesn't mean that he's likely to get in, but he has a chance, and that's all I can ask for...
Because the players who are actually linked to steroids have NO SHOT. McGwire has lost votes each year, Palmeiro only received 11% and Kevin Brown fell off the ballot. The Hall of Fame voters are clearly drawing a line in the sand that steroids are not welcome in Cooperstown. I used to think that Bonds and Clemens would get in, and maybe they will, but it's looking more and more like they won't.
Poor Tim Raines. As the steroid sluggers pop up on the ballots in the upcoming years there is a chance people turn their attention (or votes) towards the speedster, but 37.5% isn't too promising.

2011 Predictions

2011-01-05T10:31:00.002-05:00

Joe Sheehan offered some of his 2011 baseball predictions, so I figured why not offer some of mine. Similar to his list, there is no reason in stating the obvious, so here are some bold-ish predictions:

1.) The Yankees will get into the post season with ease: This certainly doesn't seem like a "bold" prediction but with the way people have been talking about the Yankees' offseason you would think they have no shot at reaching the playoffs. It's true that the Yankees have had a poor offseason, but their roster, one that was pretty darn good last year, will pretty much be the same next year. Also, while the Red Sox reloaded, the Rays have lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, their top 2 relievers and maybe even Matt Garza. Essentially for the Yankees to miss out on the postseason, the Rays, Tigers, White Sox or A's would have to beat them out for the Wild Card, and poor offseason or not that just doesn't look like a reality.

2.) The Reds will finish 3rd in the NL Central: Even though I think Jay Bruce is primed for a breakout year (more below), I can't get myself to buy into their rotation or expect Scott Rolen to stay healthy and productive for another 130+ games. Joey Votto is a star and they are a definitely a solid team but the Brewers 3rd best starter is better than the Reds' best and a team with Holliday, Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter has to be better than they were in 2010.

3.) 2011 Breakouts: Piggybacking (again) on Joe Sheehan, my list of potential break out stars for 2011:

Jay Bruce: Wrist injuries often take a while to heel and Bruce's 2nd half line of .306/.376/.575 suggests what he can do over a full season.
Shaun Marcum: He's been an above average pitcher for several years now, but the trade to the NL will take him to the next level.
Oliver Perez: I'm just making sure you didn't pass out while reading this.
Pedro Alvarez: If he makes the adjustment rather than the other way around, he could hit 35 homers.
Cameron Maybin: Never underestimate consistent playing time. If the Padres throw him in CF every day, he's talented enough to put it together, even in Petco.

4.) 2011 Busts: You can't have a breakout unless it corresponds with someone busting, so here we go:

Carlos Gonzalez: He's a fantastic young player but it's hard to walk that little, strikeout that often and keep up that production. Unless you truly believe he has Vlad Guerrero's ability to hit anything he sees, Car-Go is more like Alfonso Soriano than a triple crown candidate.
Clay Buchholz: A 2.33 ERA with mediocre strikeout and walk rates isn't sustainable. He's good, but he aint' that good.
Josh Hamilton: Health isn't one of his strengths and even Bill James' often optimistic projections calls for a significant drop off in production.

5.) At least one team will start off hot, get a lot of press and then cool off: The Padres were smart last year to not overreact to a pretty lucky hot start, mortgaging their future. Will the 2011 version of the Padres do the same? Hard to say. The Blue Jays often seem to have nice starts and one of these days they'll have to believe it's their time to compete.

6.) We know the Royals will stink, but they're going to be historically awful: Maybe not quite like the 2003 Tigers (who went 43-119) but these Royals are baaaaaaad. Their best player is a closer who can go a week without pitching, their best position player doesn't actually play a position and has only 20 homer power and their rotation doesn't feature one guy who you would feel comfortable having as your 4th starter. Unless Moustakas, Hosmer and Myers pull a Ryan Braun and mash right from the start, this is going to be a longer season for Royals fans than even they're used to.

7.) Jesus Montero will be an adequate catcher, for the Yankees: Contrary to what a lot of overreacting, simpleminded Yankees beat writers will tell you, the Russell Martin signing doesn't mean that the Yankees have no faith in Montero, it just means the Yankees are getting some insurance on a 21 year old rookie catcher. Jorge Posada couldn't really catch when he was young, let alone when he was 36 but he could hit so he started. Jesus Montero will do the same. The Yankees do trade prospects, but generally they keep their best ones as I don't see any Pettittes, Jeters, Canos or Riveras playing for other teams. Forget the trade rumors, they're holding on to Montero and he's going to do well for them.

8.) The A's win the division: The A's have a great young rotation that in theory should only get better and this offseason they added a few underrated bats. Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui and David Dejesus won't scare you but they're significant upgrades over Rajaj Davis and Ryan Sweeney. The Rangers are still a solid team, and have a very impressive lineup, but as their roster currently stands, I don't see how relying on CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis over a 162 game season to anchor your rotation adds up to a division winner.

9.) Ben's Baseball Bias takes the next step: In 2020 when I'm making bagillions off of my quick wit and stupendous baseball analysis, I'll point to 2011 as being a landmark year. Hey, I can dream right?

10.) Nick Markakis will be traded, and then will mash: Markakis has declined over the last couple years making his contract not as team-friendly as it once was as it will start to get more expensive. At some point a big budget team will need an outfielder and the Orioles, who are still a few years away from competing, will trade him. At that point in a new surroundings, maybe even the JV league, Markakis will start hitting like he did in 2007.

11.) Jose Bautista will hit over 40 homers: Predicting anyone to hit 50 homers is silly, but Jose Bautista is the real deal and will prove that in 2011.

12.) The Red Sox rotation will be dece, but it won't matter: Clay Buchholz had an ERA about 2 runs higher than he should have, John Lackey aint' that good, the days of Dice-K putting it all together are over and Josh Beckett can't stay healthy. Jon Lester is arguably a top 5 starter in the game but the Red Sox rotation as a whole is better in our minds than they are production wise. With all of that said however, the Red Sox will still be fantastic and deserving of the praise they will get before, during and after the season.

13.) I have no f-ing clue who will win the World Series: At this point I usually feel fairly confident in my ability to choose a World Series favorite, but honestly I have no idea. This may seem like a cop-out answer, but with everyone choosing a specific team this likely makes me the unique one, and I'll gladly take that position.

Happy Festivus!

2010-12-23T11:25:00.000-05:00

In case you did not now, today, December 23 is the wonderful holiday Festivus created by Dan O'Keefe and popularized by his son Daniel, a writer for the show Seinfeld, where Festivus became a storyline in "The Strike" episode.

Festivus is a simple, yet beautiful holiday that has only a few rituals:

Festivus Pole: This is the only display needed for Festivus, an unadorned aluminum pole.

Airing of Grievances: Immediately after dinner is served, everyone at the table lashes out at each other and the world about how they have been disappointed over the past year.

Feats of Strength: Festivus is not over until the head of the household is pinned in a wrestling match. The head of the household usually chooses who will participate in the match, although it isn't unheard of for someone to run out (aka go to work the late shift at H & H) instead of wrestling.

Additionally, Festivus miracles often will occur during the holiday. Whether they are legit miracles or dumb, mundane coincidences, the point is that they're real and they're spectacular!

The Festivus site has many Festivus-carols, so I decided to make my own.

Festivus Night

to the tune of "Silent Night"

Festivus night, holy night

The holiday is here, what a site

Gather around the aluminum pole

Unadorned yet full of soul

Festivus for the rest of us

Festivus night, holy night

Dinner is served, now we spite

All who disappointed us over the year

Now is our chance to sneer

Airing of Grievances

Festivus night, holy night

Nothing is calm, it's time to fight

Feats of Strength, the head has been pinned

We can rejoice, the holiday has end

A Festivus miracle

With that said, I would like to wish you all a happy and healthy Festivus for the rest of us!

Gustavo Chacin

2010-12-22T16:49:00.000-05:00

The Astros resigned lefty Gustavo Chacin to a minor league contract today, and while that isn't big news for baseball purposes (he's 30 year old pitcher who hasn't been good since 2005) it should be noted that he is one of only a few players who's name-awesomeness to photo-awesomeness ratio is close to 1:1.

The Evidence

Exhibit A: Gustavo Chacin (goose-TAV-o SHA-seen)

Exhibit B:

Need I say more?

Hooray for Shaughnessy!

2010-12-22T16:07:00.002-05:00

The 2010 AL Cy Young Award caused quite a debate with the best pitcher in the league, Felix Hernandez, having a surprisingly low win total. While I am certainly glad that the voters got it "right" by my standards, I was a little saddened by the idea of the voters continuing to get it right. As weird as that may sound, it would signal an end to these debates which in hindsight are often pretty fun. I guess its a love/hate sort of thing. It's not always enjoyable, and can often be frustrating, to argue about such things, but when it's for a case that you agree with so vehemently, dare I say those arguments become entertaining?

Anyways, in my brief period of sadness I forgot about the yearly Hall of Fame debate. Recent awards have shown the the voters are leaning towards common sense, but that hasn't necessarily been the case for the Hall of Fame. Lucky for us there is always Dan Shaughnessy!

Anything that this man writes is grounds for the FJM treatment, but I'll save you the time and just cut the the chase:

Finally, what do we do with Jeff Bagwell? He’s a career .297 hitter with 449 homers. He was an MVP. He won a Gold Glove. He had six straight seasons of 30 homers, 100 RBIs, and 100 runs. His career on base percentage is .408. Bagwell never tested positive for anything. But like a lot of players who will follow him to the ballot, he was a guy who made you wonder.

If you care about “character,’’ snubbing guys who tested positive (Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez, and Manny Ramirez) is easy. Bonds and Clemens are under indictment. But they’re just the tip of the iceberg. What happens to Sammy Sosa, Pudge Rodriguez, and other players who made you raise your eyebrows? What do we do with Bagwell, who may just be a victim of cheaters around him? Where is this going?

My personal belief is that this isn't a black or white situation, it's quite gray. Steroids were so intertwined with the game that it is impossible, at least for me, to simply single out players who used and ban them from the Hall. I do, however, understand how people could feel the opposite. Mark McGwire admitted to steroid use and Rafael Palmeiro was caught, if that means that they can forever say goodbye to the Hall in your mind then so be it.

What I don't understand is how someone like Dan Shaugnessy could leave Bagwell off the ballot because "he was a guy who made you wonder." That is totally unfair and completely irresponsible. It'd be extraordinarily convenient to have a way of finding out who used, for how long they use and how it effected their performance. Unfortunately such a list doesn't exist. We do have a small list of people who have either admitted to steroid use or have been caught, and if you feel safe enough judging those players, then fine. But it's simply not OK to "wonder" about someone when there hasn't been even a hint of evidence suggesting that they did anything illegal.

I agree with Shaugnessy that the Hall and its voters will be facing a big issue in the upcoming years but it's based on people who have been caught, not on people who we may arbitrarily "wonder" about. No kidding, I'd rather someone vote for Lenny Harris and his pinch-hitting record than leave off Bagwell because of that reasoning. I'm not sure I've ever disagreed with someone's voting process more than this and frankly, it should be grounds to at least consider revoking someone's voting privileges.

Remember that little preamble where I was basically glad that we still have this to argue about? Yea, I'm over that.

Jon Heyman Still Doesn't Get It

2010-12-22T13:47:00.008-05:00

Bert Blyleven. Do you disagree?

It's admirable that Jon Heyman made his Hall of Fame ballot public, but his choices, reasoning and explanations just defy any logic, coherence or simple understanding of what makes a Hall of Famer.

As we all know by now, the major discrepancy between Heyman's ballot and simple logic isn't the inclusion of Jack Morris on his ballot, but the stance that he was a better pitcher than Bert Blyleven. The case for Jack Morris usually considers the following:

Clutch pitching, headlined by his 1991 World Series Game 7 performance--10 innings 1-0 shutout.
Impressive 254 wins and 175 complete games
3 World Series rings
Excuses for his high rather ERA, as Heyman notes: "Morris has a high lifetime ERA, 3.90. But some of that is due to the 6.19 and 5.60 marks he put up in his final two seasons. And part of it is due to him pitching to the scoreboard, which the very best pitchers could do."
The "you had to be there" stance. Since the numbers don't quite add up (3.90 ERA, and less wins than many pitchers in the Hall and out of the Hall) Morris supporters resort to a "gut feeling" or some intangible argument.

I understand that Hall of Fame voting can be a very personal matter, and if you are going to include Morris because of some "gut feeling" about him being better than his numbers may indicate (Reason #5), then fine, include him, whatever. I don't have a problem with that. My problem comes when you use his numbers as reasoning, because then your entire argument falls apart (Reasons 1-4).

If you want to include Jack Morris, but not Blyleven, your argument should start and end with the 5th point. In points 1-4, Blyleven will always come out on top, it's simply a matter of fact as his numbers are better. Essentially when you criticize Blyleven's numbers, you are simultaneously criticizing Morris'. The only argument for Morris is the intangible, "gut feeling" "you had to be there" argument. Saying anything else beyond that just undermines Morris' case.

For instance, just look at some of Heyman's comments on Blyleven:

"The scarcity of complete games in recent years has also shined a light on some his lifetime achievements."

If the scarcity of complete games in recent years shines light on *some* of his lifetime achievements, why highlight Morris' 175 complete games as reason for his inclusion when Blyleven had 67 more?

"[He] never dominated even one season or certainly a series of seasons. He never finished higher than third in the Cy Young balloting and only four times finished in the top 10, meaning he was never considered among the two best pitchers in his league during his time."

Two things. First, the fact that voters were stupid to not give Blyleven more love shouldn't hurt him now. Second, Jack Morris never finished higher than 3rd in the Cy Young balloting, meaning he was also never considered among the two best pitchers in his league during his time. Ah, let's give a third thing, just because Blyleven wasn't considered great, doesn't mean he wasn't great. I suppose when evolution wasn't "considered" a fact it meant it wasn't right?

"Blyleven was never considered to be in the category of the game's best pitchers during his career. He simply outlasted almost everyone else and kept pitching effectively into his 40s. He never led the league in wins or ERA"

We've already been through this, and Morris was never considered to be in the category of the game's best pitchers during his time either. Also Blyleven didn't pitch effectively in his 40s, at age 39 he had an ERA over 5, he didn't pitch at age 40 and at age 41 he was below average. Anyways, in what world should it be held against Blyleven that he pitched longer and more effectively than Morris? Just a few points ago it was fine to dismiss Morris' last few seasons as an excuse for his high ERA, if we do the same for Blyleven his ERA drops to 3.14 from 3.33, again,over half a run better than Morris'.

"He only received MVP votes twice, finishing 26th in 1973 and 13th in 1989."

Here we go again, if voters made a mistake in the 70s, we shouldn't compound their mistake in 2011. Plus, it's not like Morris was a great MVP candidate. He received MVP votes in 5 separate years compared to just 2 by Blyleven but he finished 13th twice, 15th, 20th and 21st. Neither pitcher was ever a legitimate MVP candidate, making this point rather useless.

"According to baseball-reference.com, he ranks 936th alltime in MVP shares at 0.09."

This may be true, but if one is going to site a statistic on baseball-reference.com, this is cherry-picking one that is both unimportant and the only one where Morris may outrank Blyleven. We've already established that Morris received more MVP votes, instead of going down that path again let's take a look at some actual important measures on baseball-reference.com that tell us perhaps who *should* have won more awards:

WAR: Blyleven 90.1, Morris 39.3. That's a pretty darn huge difference. Maybe you think that WAR is a great way of comparing pitchers and maybe you don't, but almost statistic with that large of a discrepancy should tell you something. And it's not like WAR is just any old random statistic, it's a pretty well established one at this point.

ERA+: Blyleven 118, Morris 105. At least according to ERA, Blyleven was legitimately better than Morris, and did it over 1,000 more innings too.

Also, baseball-reference.com has 4 Hall of Fame stats, let's take a look at each one:

Black Ink Test, average HOFer ~40: Blyleven 16, Morris 20

Grey Ink Test, average HOFer ~185: Blyleven 237, Morris 185

Hall of Fame Monitor, average HOFer~ 100: Blyleven 120, Morris 122

Hall of Fame Standards, averag HOFer ~50: Blyleven 50, Morris 39

Now, Blyleven doesn't blow Morris out of the water here, but he's definitely better. Morris beats him in 2 of the tests, but both are minor differences, and in one (Black Ink) neither of them qualify.

What seems to happen every year in the Morris v. Blyleven Hall of Fame debate is that Morris supporters who lived to see both players pitch have this intangible, gut feeling that Morris was the better pitcher. That's their opinion and I'm not going to kill them for having it but even those people (like Heyman) don't feel comfortable relying on just that for their argument. And in the process of using reason to explain why Morris is a better pitcher, their argument always come up short, likely because there is no reason to explain Morris as a better pitcher. It may seem counter intuitive, but less is more in the Morris HOF debate because once you bring numbers into the equation, there is no justifiable reason to include Morris and not Blyleven.

This type of problem comes up all the time, and quite frankly, I'm getting pretty tired of it-- if you don't like statistics, then don't use statistics. Heyman and co. come off sounding pretty stupid when they cite an MVP shares statistic but run for the hills when someone brings up a valuable statistic, that, you know, tells us how good a player is like ERA+ or WAR. If you rely on just what you saw while you may seem pretty ignorant at least you'd be consistent.

In his argument to not include Blyleven, Heyman for some reason unknown to me, brings up Bobby Abreu as a comparable player to Blyleven, where numbers don't tell the entire story:

I've already seen hints from the numbers guys that they believe Abreu could have a strong Hall of Fame case based on his statistics, which currently include a .296 lifetime average, eight seasons of 100 RBIs and eight of 100 runs scored. I can imagine him becoming the next Blyleven, a very good player whose career numbers lead to an Internet campaign on his behalf. To me, both were excellent players who were consistent, durable and compiled impressive numbers. But they're not Hall of Famers.

If you put Blyleven's lifetime numbers through a computer, the computer would probably determine that he (and Abreu, for that matter) is a Hall of Famer. But the game is about human beings, not just numbers. It's about impact.

This would be a worthwhile point if the "numbers guys" believed Abreu to have a strong Hall of Fame case. It may be true that Abreu in his prime was maybe a tad underrated, as is ability to draw walks and steal bases at a great percentage, occurred without much attention. But, it's likely the non-numbers guys that will point to his life time average and RBI totals as reason for enshrinement. The "numbers guys" will actually point to his awful defense and overall value not being able to justify himself as a Hall of Famer. Heyman tries using Abreu to bait you into believing that you can't rely on statistics, but he fails pretty miserably with Abreu being a pretty piss-poor example.

While I think it's quite stupid and wildly disagree with Hall of Fame voting coming down to intangibles, "you had to be there" arguments and as Heyman so eloquently says, "impact", that's each voter's prerogative on how they want to measure a Hall of Famer. But please, stop trying using reason, logic or statistics to back up your choice when those things simply don't exist in your argument. It's not that there isn't a case to be made for Morris as a Hall of Famer, it's that the argument for Morris would need to occur after Blyleven gets in.

At least we don't have to argue about Jeff Bagwell, right? Wait, you're telling me Heyman decided he's not worthy but Don Mattingly, Dave Parker and Dale Murphy are? Until next time...

Zack Attack!

2010-12-20T17:31:00.004-05:00

The Royals traded Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers for a 2010 fantasy baseball SS sleeper gone wrong (Alcides Escobar), a late-season fantasy surprise CF (Lorenzo Cain), and two pitching prospects one of which has been suspended twice for using marijuana (Jeremy Jeffress) and another who hasn't pitched above single-A ball (Jake Odorizzi).

The Brewers are hoping this cover is still
true. The Royals? Who knows what they think

The Royals have hands-down the best farm system in all of baseball, and one of the best in recent memory, but what they don't have is up-the-middle kind of players on offense. Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are all top flight hitting prospects, but they're corner outfielder/infielder types, not shortstops or center fielders. So, when Greinke demanded to be traded, those were two positions the Royals wanted to fill as Yuniesky Betancourt and Melky Cabrera are more than just inadequate long-term solutions, they're among the worst regulars in major league baseball.

I understand the Royals logic before they traded Greinke. They have prospects all over the diamond except up the middle, so if they're forced to trade Zack Greinke (and he did demand a trade) they should try to fill their weaknesses. Makes sense. The problem is in the end they just didn't get much at all in return. All else equal it would be smart for the Royals to choose the SS/CF package, but all else wasn't equal and the Royals didn't even try to find what else there was.

The Royals appropriately didn't want to risk having his value slip by holding on to Greinke for too long, but that only makes sense if, you know, get value in return for Greinke. When you are trading someone like Zack Greinke, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball, is young and signed to a reasonable deal, you expect to get a possible star player in return. The Royals chose quantity over quality which in this scenario is easy to quantify, as a horrible decision.

The Brewers, safe to say, did pretty, pretty good in acquiring Zack Greinke. As a small market team who can't afford to resign Prince Fielder and in a market deep with 1b/DH types, the Brewers were smart to not trade Prince for $0.50 on the dollar or ride him out on a sub-par team and watch him leave in 2011. By gutting their farm system the Brewers fixed their rotation adding 2 top pitchers (Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum) to go along with Yovani Gallardo and the 4th best offense in the NL last year, instantly becoming playoff contenders. This time next year the Brewers may, and very likely will, be waving goodbye to Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks but that was a realistic scenario before this trade, and because of it they may be waving goodbye with an NL Central ring on their hand, or whatever else teams give out these days, which doesn't happen very often in Milwaukee.

Russell Martin to the Yankees, Bad Analysis Follows

2010-12-19T14:31:00.000-05:00

The Yankees signed Russell Martin with full knowledge that he would need knee surgery. They've appropriately been criticized in the media, giving $4M to a catcher with a hip issue that needs additional surgery for his knee isn't necessarily the greatest news but Wallace Matthews (as usual) takes it a little to far:

what does the revelation that the Yankees went ahead with the signing of Martin, at a reported $4 million, despite the fact he will need surgery to repair a torn meniscus before he ever squats behind a plate, say about their faith in Montero?

Well, probably one of two things.

The first is that, despite their public pronouncements to the contrary, the Yankees are not at all convinced the 21-year-old Montero is anywhere close to being ready to assume everyday catching duties for a major league team.

The second is that, despite their public pronouncements to the contrary, the Yankees are probably quite willing to include Montero in a trade package to acquire a starting pitcher now that Cliff Lee has remembered how much he loved Philadelphia.

And the third is that when Cashman issued his "Plan B is patience" proclamation on Tuesday, that patience may not have extended to waiting for Montero to be ready.

As convenient as it would be to have the Russell Martin signing signal revelation as to the Yankees thoughts of Jesus Montero, it's simply nothing more than a minor signing. Jorge Posada won't be the every day catcher next year and instead of completely relying on a 21 year old who could use some extra seasoning in the minors (as well as the added benefit of preventing his arbitration clock from ticking) the Yankees decided to give a former all-star catcher a chance to redeem himself.

The fact that the Yankees signed Russell Martin does not mean that Montero isn't "anywhere close to being ready", that the Yankees are "quite willing to include Montero in a trade package" or that they suddenly have no more patience in Montero.

Minor knee surgery included, the Yankees were smart to give Montero an insurance policy in Russell Martin -- in case he isn't ready, not because he isn't ready.

As much as Wallace Matthews would like you to think otherwise, a one-year contract to Russell Martin just doesn't undermine Montero's development and everything the Yankees have said about the matter. In general I am a fan of the local ESPN sites, but in general Wallace Matthews is often wrong.

Sorry, Happy Friday

2010-12-17T17:25:00.003-05:00

Sorry for the recent drought of posts but I'll be back to blogging on Monday. Sometimes when you don't have a job, that search becomes more important than even Ben's Baseball Bias.

Anyways, for all you goyim waiting for Christmas, I'll leave you with this for the weekend. Happy Friday.

UPDATE: Rats, the embedded link won't show up, anyways here's the URL:
http://www.spike.com/video/snl-christmas-song/2783184

Bar none, the best Christmas son in history.

Baseball Bloggers Alliance Day!

2010-12-10T14:46:00.002-05:00

For those of you do not know, this little blog of mine is part of something bigger, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. The BBA was founded in 2009 by president Daniel Shoptaw "to foster communication and collaboration between bloggers across baseball." Although I'm merely a newb it's become abundantly clear in my short time being involved that the BBA has done just what it has set out to do.

Each year, the BBA members (as a part of their requirement) vote on the major awards as well as the Hall of Fame. The 2010 BBA Award Winners can be found here. The BBA awards may not carry the same weight as their MLB counterparts, but you can't deny the fact their names are better. The award for the best pitcher is named after Walter Johnson, the most valuable player award is named after Stan Musial and the best relief pitcher in each league receives a Goose Gossage Award. I'm not sure about you but if I'm Mariano Rivera, I'd rather have a few Goose Gossage's on my mantle over the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year.

Today, December 10th, on Baseball Bloggers Alliance day, I would like to thank Daniel Shoptaw and my fellow bloggers for all the great work that has been done.

If you would like to check out the other members, and I hope you do, they can be found here.

Winter Meetings: Who Won and Who Lost?

2010-12-09T22:14:00.001-05:00

The Winter Meetings are over so let's choose the winners and losers!

WINNERS

Any Free Agent: Teams are undoubtedly spending more money this offseason, benefiting all free agents. Last year Jim Thome got $1.5M, during the Winter Meetings Carlos Pena received $10M, and the White Sox gave out 3 and 4 year deals for Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn.

Jayson Werth: The Phillies were willing to give him 3 years and the Red Sox apparently 5, so naturally he signed for 7 years and $126 Million from the Nationals.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox needed a left fielder, so they went out and signed the best one in baseball. Then they moved Kevin Youklis over to third and needed a first baseman so they went out and traded for arguably the best one not named Albert.

Derek Jeter: On the open market he's signing a 2 year deal, on the Yankees he gets 3 and over $50M.

San Diego Padres: They received a nice, fair return for Adrian Gonzalez and traded a few replaceable relievers (especially given their park) for their likely 2011 starting shortstop (Jason Bartlett) and center fielder (Cameron Maybin).

People's Ability to Hear: More people "overheard" things this week than in the history of mankind. This is a fact.

Baltimore Orioles: Nothing major, but a lot of solid moves. In 2010 Miguel Tejada and Cesar Izturis played on the left side of the infield, in 2011 Mark Reynolds and JJ Hardy will be there. Upgrade! Plus, signing Koji Uehara (55/5 K/BB) for one year and $3M when the Tigers gave 3 years to Joaquin Benoit is a total steal.

The State of Arkansas: I think the Rangers and Yankees quadrupled the state's tourism for the year, maybe decade.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers traded a guy who posts pictures of himself online playing "Edward Fortyhands" with a finger mustache (Brett Lawrie) for a great pitcher (Shaun Marcum).

Pittsburgh Pirates: They've done nothing to actually help the team all that much but they're trying and being aggressive and at this point the Pirates get points just for doing that.

Luke Scott's Unintentional Comedy: The dude said Obama wasn't born in America!

LOSERS

Kansas City Royals: You don't get credit for building up the minor league system during the Winter Meetings. A couple of years ago GM Dayton Moore claimed to want to improve the teams OBP, this week they signed Jeff Francoeur (.300 OBP) and Melky Cabrera (.317 OBP).

Justin Upton: Before the meetings started Upton was the hot rumor. When the meetings ended nobody came up with a legitimate offer and Upton's feelings were hurt.

New York Yankees: Any time the Red Sox get 2 top 20 players and the Yankees get nothing, it's a loss.

Tampa Bay Rays: They're too smart of an organization to not put together a solid team once this offseason is over but right now they've lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Joaquin Benoit and Jason Bartlett; they stand to lose Rafael Soriano and the only rumors they're involved in are regarding them trading more players away for salary relief.

Personal Twitter Accounts: As much as I love baseball, hearing about every unsubstantiated rumor gets to be pretty, pretty annoying.

Minnesota Twins: I thought they weren no longer considered such a small market team but they traded JJ Hardy for some peanuts just to save a few bucks. Granted they're pretty good peanuts, maybe even roasted, but they're still peanuts for a starting shortstop.

Los Angeles Angels: Crawford was their guy, and they lost him.

Luke Scott's Respectability: The dude said Obama wasn't born in America!

Boston Strikes Again!

2010-12-09T19:04:00.002-05:00

First they traded the farm for Adrian Gonzalez, now the Boston Red Sox have signed Carl Crawford to a $142M 7 year deal, the largest in team history…until of course Gonzalez resigns with them for likely even more money. Although Adrian Gonzalez won’t sign an extension until the 2011 for accounting/luxury tax reasons, the Red Sox essentially have spent ~$300M this offseason, mimicking the New York Yankees 2009 strategy on how to win a World Series after missing out on the playoffs: Spend, spend, spend!

Other teams need not attempt this strategy as only the Yankees and Red Sox are qualified to do so. Overall I don’t think you can accurately state that baseball suffers a competitive balance problem because of signings like this, which will inevitably be claimed. You can, however, say that only a few teams (maybe only 2) can spend their way to consistently be competitive.

The Red Sox, who once famously called the Yankees the Evil Empire, will now join the Dark Side once their admissions check is cashed and accepted. The team that had previously refused to shell out an extra $10M for a marquee free agent or trade the future for the now, has swallowed their last bit of “we’re not the Yankees” pride and are playing with the big boys, spending roughly $300M and losing three prospects on just two players this offseason. Actually they’ve likely spent even more because those prospects (along with the draft pick surrendered to sign Carl Crawford) have monetary value as shown here. According to my rough calculations the Red Sox have basically spent $350M, which is on par with what the Yankees spent in 2009, and could possibly be more depending how the prospects turn out.

The $142M and maybe more importantly, the 7 years, may seem like a lot for Carl Crawford, but that’s the luxury of having the financial muscle and the wherewithal to flex it. Carl Crawford doesn’t fit the profile of most hitters who receive big money like this, in fact there is actually no comparison, but the fact Crawford is different doesn’t mean it’s necessarily a bad contract. There is no rule that states a player must be a power threat to deserve a long term deal. The name of the game is production, and over the past few years, Carl Crawford has been among the most productive hitters in the league. Since 2008, Carl Crawford ranks 4th in the American League in FanGraphs WAR, with only Kevin Youklis, Joe Mauer and Evan Longoria besting him.

Carl Crawford’s production is based on his fielding prowess and base running, two skills that often require one specific skill, speed, something that also tends to fall as players age. But Crawford is still young (29), is currently one of the best players in the league and shows no reason why he shouldn't remain one of the best players in the league for 5 or so more years. The Red Sox very well may be overpaying Crawford when he's 34 and 35, but that's the price you have to pay to have one of the best players on your team for the other 5 years, and I'm not sure that's such a bad thing to have.

Quick Thoughts

2010-12-09T12:34:00.000-05:00

Sick Brag.

The Kansas City Royals finally made the move we all knew they eventually would, signing Jeff Francoeur to a one year $2.5M deal. If signing one incompetent outfielder wasn't enough, Royals GM Dayton Moore went out and signed Melky Cabrera to a $1.25M deal with incentives. That's two outfielders with above average arms to overshadow their defensive efficiencies and with bats that have OPS+'s of 88 and 86 since 2006. If the war on WAR (wins above replacement) has confused you, and you don't quite get the concept of replacement level, these two players are replacement level. When someone says Jayson Werth had 5.0 WAR last year just think, Jayson Werth gives the Nationals 5 more wins than Jeff Francoeur or Melky Cabrera could. Got it?

It's easy to sit here and laugh about how the Royals acquired Frenchie, as we have joked about it for over a year, but in the grand scheme of things this isn't necessarily that bad. The "process" may have taken a little longer than expected, but Moore has built the best farm system in baseball. In 2011 the Royals aren't expected to win, they're just expected to ease in some of their top prospects, and as long as Frenchie and the Melk Man are appropriately used as place holders, it won't hurt the "process". Of course it's $3.75M that they could have easily not been spent, and of course the Royals will have some ghastly black holes at the bottom of their lineup, but so long as Alex Gordon is starting every day and Will Myers, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer get PT when they arrive, these signings will be forgotten soon.

BUT, and this is a pretty big but, if this kind of move dictates what Moore will be doing in 2012 and 2013, when the Royals are expected to be winning, then it'll be a problem. A great farm system, and the Royals have an amazing one, can go a long way in building a great team but you can't only build from the farm. You need some outside help. Even the Rays had to sign Carlos Pena and trade for Matt Garza. For what it's worth the Seattle Mariners recently signed Jack Cust for 1 year at $2.5M and Cust would have been one of the best hitters on the Royals last year but the Royals chose to sign Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera. Again, Frenchie and the Melk Man as good character guys and place holders for the future talent is fine, but Moore is going to have to start making some smart decisions, bringing in outside talent if the Royals are going to truly succeed.

Cliff Lee rumors are heating up, especially now that Crawford is off the board (more on that later today). The Yankees are rumored to have given in to Lee's demands, offering a 7th year, the Rangers are visiting Lee in Arkansas for a third time and after missing out on their main target (Crawford), the Angels are focusing some attention on Lee. I'll gladly report rumors of teams talking to Lee, but at this point speculating on which team is ahead at this point just seems pointless. We'll know about where Cliff Lee signs when he's, well, signed.

Paul Konerko and Some Prospect History

2010-12-09T09:04:00.002-05:00

Konerko is staying in Chicago to join future bash brother Adam Dunn for a reported $37.5M over 3 years. If Carlos Pena gets $10M after an atrocious 2010, then ~$12M a year for 3 years is reasonable for Konerko. Konerko has been very consistent throughout his career and is by all accounts a great clubhouse guy as team captain -- if he simply does what he has been doing since he started on the White Sox he'll earn his keep.

However, it's hard to tell how players will age as they approach their mid to late 30s. Not everyone ages gracefully or even gradually, and since Konerko has no defensive value, he'll have to avoid years like 2003 and 2008 to make due on his contract. Also working against Konerko is the fact that players with his skill set don't tend to age that well. Konerko is coming off of his best year yet so there are no grounds to assume he'll stop producing, but age is a funny thing and in 2 years the White Sox can't be too shocked if this contract looks bad.

Still, with what we know about Konerko it looks like a fine contract as they are trying to compete next year and aren't paying Konerko above his market value.

As I searched for a nice Konerko pic for this entry I couldn't help but notice the gem above, which reminded me how Konerko was traded twice even though he was a top prospect. So, I decided to indulge into a brief history of Paul Konerko, as his history of being traded is interesting during the Winter Meetings and offseason, when many prospects much like Konerko are traded or rumored to be.

Paul Konerko was drafted as a catcher with the 13th pick by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1994 amateur draft out of Chaparral High School in Scottsdale, Arizona. Konerko stayed at catcher until he was moved to first base in 1996. Catcher or first base though, Konerko destroyed minor league pitching as we can see here:

Year	Level	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
1995	A+	448	77	124	19	77	59	88	0.277	0.361	0.455
1996	AA	557	78	141	29	86	72	85	0.300	0.397	0.543
1997	AAA	483	78	156	37	127	64	61	0.323	0.407	0.621

After his monster 1997 season in AAA Konerko (22 years old) was approprietly ranked #2 on Baseball America's list of top prospects and started the year on the Dodgers going into the 1998 season. The Dodgers had Erik Karros at 1b but Konerko's bat was too good to keep down so Konerko was moved all over the field getting time at first base, third base and left field. Konerko struggled in his first 18 games in 1998 batting .197/.275/.197 in 69 plate appearances and was sent down to Albuquerque, the Dodgers AAA affiliate where he appropriately raked to the tune of a .379/.436/.701 line in 24 games. Earning his way back to the majors on May 24th, Konerko continued to struggle over his next 31 games (89 PAs) playing all over the field again inconsistently and was promptly traded on Independence Day to the Cincinnati Reds along with Dennys Reyes for reliever Jeff Shaw.

Jeff Shaw was a great reliever before and after the Dodgers acquired him, but the Dodgers, after seeing the #2 prospect in all of baseball step up to the plate 239 times playing inconsistently at foreign positions, decided to give up on him. Mistake. As good as Shaw was he wasn't great and he was done with baseball 3 years later. Meanwhile Konerko has been a consistent power threat for over a decade.*

*You would think the Dodgers would learn their lesson, that trading young, valuable prospects for a relief pitcher is never a good idea but during this years trading deadline the Dodgers got the "reliever fever" again when they traded prospect Andrew Lambo and starter James McDonald to the Pirates for reliever Octavio Dotel. And as careless and short-sighted as that deal seems now, the one with Konerko was probably worse at the time.

ANYWAY, now on Cincinnati, Konerko entered a game on July 10th in the 8th inning and proceeded to start in the next 10 games but couldn't find a rhythym going 7/48. Konerko played here and there for the next week until he was sent down again to AAA although this time to Indianapolis, the Cincinnati Red's AAA affiliate. As he always did, Konerko hit in the minors, batting .327/.402/.540 in 150 at bats until he was called up in September with the expanded rosters. Playing here and there in parts of 9 September games, Konerko finally showed some signs of light going 6/18 with 3 walks and 6 RBI.

But that wouldn't be enough. Konerko was blocked at 1b by the Reds own top 1b prospect, Sean Casey, and that November Konerko was traded to the Chicago White Sox for center fielder Mike Cameron. The next year, at 23 years old in 1999, Paul Konerko was finally given consistent playing time at a specific position and he accordingly started to hit; .294/.352/.511 in 142 games with 24 HR and 81 RBI. While it's hard to call that a bad swap for Cincinnati (in fact when you take defense and position into account, Cincinnati got the better end of the deal, until of course they traded Cameron a year later in a huge package for Ken Griffey Jr.) it is interesting that two teams traded the #2 prospect within just a few months of each other.

As the offseason is in full swing we hear rumors upon rumors about trades, often involving top prospects, and Paul Konerko was definitely one of them years ago. While I would struggle to call it a bad swap for Cincinnati (in fact when you take defense and position into account, the Reds likely got the better end of the deal) it's interesting that two teams would give up on the #2 prospect in baseball after seeing him for only100 or so at bats. So, next time your teams top prospect is struggling, have some patience because he may pull a Konerko.

Carlos Pena to the Cubs

2010-12-08T09:42:00.009-05:00

Carlos Pena and the Chicago Cubs reached an "Adrian Beltre Bounce-Back" like agreement, a 1 year deal for $10M.

With the way the market has gone so far this offseason, this has to be considered a great deal for the Cubs. If Ty Wigginton can get a 2 year deal as a weak hitting, no field utility player and Jayson Werth can get $126M then Carlos Pena at $10M qualifies as a steal. The Cubs needed a first baseman, preferably lefty, with power and they got just that for only a one year deal.

Yes, Carlos Pena had a dreadful 2010, but a lot of that was a product of bad luck. There is this thing called BABIP which stands for batting average on balls in play and for his career Carlos Pena's BABIP is .279. That means that we can reasonably expect for 28% of the balls Pena puts into play to become hits. Last year, Pena's BABIP was .222 which tells us that an inordinate amount of balls that Pena put into play were turned into outs.

It is possible that Pena is suddenly a significantly worse hitter now than ever before, but it's also possible that it was just a matter of chance. Pena is still relatively young (33) and walked and struck out at the same rates as last year, so while he may not be the player he was in 2007-2008, the Cubs are betting on his 2010 being a product of some bad bounces and for only a one year commitment at $10M, it's a bet worth taking.

Jayson Werth, Sham-WOW

2010-12-07T18:13:00.006-05:00

Bigger rip-off, Werth for $127 Million or the ShamWow?

In December 2006 two players signed deals for 7 years and $126M-- Barry Zito with the Giants and Vernon Wells with the Blue Jays. Fast-forward to December 2010 and we have Jayson Werth signing a 7 year $126M deal
with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals have to be crossing their fingers that this deal doesn't end in a similar fate as those other two deals. Jayson Werth right now is better than either Vernon Wells or Barry Zito were at the time of their signing but he's also a few years older. Moreover, Jayson Werth who at 31 years old has 18.7 career WAR will get more money than Matt Holliday did last year with 21.9 career WAR at the age of 29.

Now, teams have been spending more money this winter, showcased by middle relievers getting 3 years (Benoit), backup catchers getting $21M (Buck) middling starting pitchers in their 30s getting $35M extensions (Arroyo) but any way you want to slice it, this is a vast overpay for the Nationals. The rumor was that Werth was going to sign a contract in between the 4 years $60M that Jason Bay signed and the $120M that Matt Holliday got. But the Nationals blew Werth out of the water offering more money than Matt Holliday. Crazy. Scott Boras clients usually don't sign early with Boras sometimes even taking so much time to the detriment of his client (see Damon, Johnny). When Werth showed a willingness to accept a deal this early, that should have been a sign to the Nationals that this was too much, but of course there should have been a million other signs like his age (32 on opening day), his injury history in his early years, the (bad) history of contracts like this (and we even failed to mention Alfonso Soriano) and the fact that the Nationals aren't going to competing in the next few years.

More on that last point, the Nationals will be paying a total of $36M to Jayson Werth in 2011 and 2012 for the team to not compete. Further, at the end of his contract Werth will be making $36M when he's 37 and 38. There is a small window, in 2013-2014, where Werth may be productive enough to earn his salary at the same time that the Nationals can expect to compete. For that small window, the Nationals decided to spend an extra $72M. Oh, and I forgot to mention that Werth plays the same position as the Nationals best prospect, Bryce Harper. And if they expect Werth to not be an everyday right fielder by the time Harper is ready that just reaffirms how irresponsible of a move this was. Again, crazy.

There isn't any reasonable excuse for this kind of irresponsible spending but there may be an explanation and it may have been in reaction to Adam Dunn leaving where Ryan Zimmerman said:

"Knowing that we had one of the three top free agents on our team and we didn't want to resign him, it's frustrating for us as players," Zimmerman said. "We're not in the front office. We don't make the decisions, and we don't have to write the checks. But we're getting to the point on our team where we're supposed to wait it out, wait for the young guys, start doing some things and start making some moves. Not only are we ready for that, I think the fans are, as well. We've trusted the front office, and we still trust them. But we want to best possible team on the field."

[...]

"When you add a guy like that, a bona fide No. 4 hitter, it lengthens your lineup a ton - a guy that would be hitting fifth is hitting sixth," Zimmerman said. "It makes the other team notice. I think all of us notice what they (in the front office) do. We've trusted their plan the whole time, and now it's getting to that point where it's time to do some things. We know we have a good young team, but we need a few pieces. Obviously, you're not going to do all that in one season, but you can add a piece here and add a piece there."

Ryan Zimmerman's opinion may, and likely should, carry some weight in the Nationals front office as he's their best player, but if that's the case then they'd be better off with Dunn for 4 years than Werth for 7 years.

I'm sure you didn't need to read my 2 cents on this deal to realize this was a bad move by the Nationals but I'm going to leave you with 2 more thoughts, or cents if you will:

This deal doesn't prove that bad teams have to spend more on free agents. As Keith Law mentioned, that would require good teams to get free agents at a discount, and as the Yankees will tell you, that just isn't the case. Bad teams do, however, make stupid decisions and this is definitely qualifies as one.
Don't let anyone fool you into thinking this deal will change or attempt to change the atmosphere in the Nationals' clubhouse. When the Mets (over)spent for Pedro Martinez people claimed that Pedro changed the culture of the Mets, allowing them to bring in Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado--that even though Pedro Martinez was paid $53M to have only one good season, it was well worth it-- baloney. Winning changes the clubhouse, not careless spending.

Quick Thoughts

2010-12-06T16:37:00.003-05:00

Players like Derek Jeter and Adrian Gonzalez deserve their own post, players like Shaun Marcum, Bronson Arroyo and Mark Reynolds do not...

Maybe the Reds put value into Arroyo's music?

Earlier this offseason the Reds picked up Bronson Arroyo's option protecting him from free agency. That move sparked a few criticisms as the Reds were likely overpaying him but that was only a little bit compared to the extension they just gave him. Arroyo is the perfect 3rd or 4th starter, a capable innings eater that won't hurt you and for that the Reds decided to give him a 3 year extension for $35M. Wow. Over the last 4 years the best FIP that Arroyo has had was in 2009 when it was 4.50. Consider this a pure ERA move as Bronson Arroyo has had a 3.86 ERA over the last 2 years and a move the Reds are likely going to regret.

Mark Reynolds was traded today to the Baltimore Orioles and in return the Diamondbacks get relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. Originally Chris Tillman was mentioned in the rumors and I was completely against the deal as I don't think Mark Reynolds is worth a young starting pitcher. But, for two OK relievers you'll generally always take the everyday position player. However, let's not fool ourselves into thinking that Mark Reynolds is, you know, all that good. His basically been a poor defender his entire career and his lone calling card, hitting, isn't so great when you consider his context. 6.4, 2.1, 24.8, -0.3, those are Mark Reynolds' park adjusted runs above average over his career. The outlier is his sole legitimate hitting season in 2009 when he had a 3.6 WAR, the other seasons in his career Reynolds has basically been an average player.

Reynolds has 2 years left on his contract paying him $5.0M in 2011 and $7.5M in 2012. While it's not a lot of money, the Orioles will probably have to get Reynolds' current production as he moves into a tougher park to hit in (although still a hitters park) in the more advanced league. It's not a lot to ask for and a team like the Orioles are better off with Reynolds at 3b than a Miguel Tejada or Garrett Atkins, but don't think the Orioles are getting the 44 homer 2009 version of Mark Reynolds.

The Adrian Gonzalez trade is getting all of the headlines, but living slightly under the radar is the Brewers trade acquiring starting pitcher Shaun Marcum from the Jays in return for top prospect Brett Lawrie. The Brewers aren't likely trying to compete in 2011 but they desperately need pitching and Marcum is a darn good one. After missing all of 2009 recovering from Tommy John Surgery Marcum displayed fantastic control (1.98 bb/9) putting up a great 3.64 ERA which was backed up by his 3.74 FIP. Further, Lawrie currently plays 2b which is blocked by Rickie Weeks and if he moves to the OF he's blocked by Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. Although Lawrie is quite the prospect he doesn't have a real place on the Brewers and in getting Marcum the Brewers can piece together a rotation and not be tempted to sign guys like Jeff Suppan. Marcum should slide nicely into the Brewer's #2 slot behind Yovani Gallardo. While they'll struggle with the rest of their rotation, getting Marcum is a great start.

As for the Blue Jays perspective, while most teams are struggling to find pitching it's actually somewhat of a surplus for the Jays. Rickey Romero and Brandon Morrow made great strides last year and with Brad Mills, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Kyle Drabek behind them, Shaun Marcum became expandable. Brett Lawrie won't be able to help out the team in 2011 but the Jays didn't really expect to compete then.

I would call this trade a draw but I have to side with getting the proven pitcher who still has a few years before he hits free agency over the prospect without a position. Yes, the Blue Jays dealt from a position of strength, but it wasn't like Marcum was going to leave in 2012 like Adrian Gonzalez would from the Padres. FanGraphs mentions that Toronto may be gathering pieces for a future trade so we may need to reserve judgement, but for now although it doesn't necessarily hurt the Blue Jays, call it a win for the Brewers. Plus, there is always this.

Finally, the Cardinals signed DH outfielder Lance Berkman to a 1-year deal worth $8M. $8M seems steep for a free agent like Berkman when you compare it to last year where Vlad Guerrero got $5M and Jim Thome got $1.5M but everything that has occurred this offseason tells us that more money is being spent, so that may not be a fair comparison. Berkman was hurt last year, lost his power and forgot how to hit lefties but when you can get on base, and the Big Puma can, you can still be a productive hitter. Berkman won't hit .300 or hit 30 homers but he should get on base about 40% of the time and provide Pujols and Holliday opportunities for RBI without affecting their long term payroll and ability to keep Mr. Pujols. Not a great signing as there will undoubtedly be cheaper/similar DH/OF players that are signed late in the offseason, but not a bad one either on a one-year deal.

Adrian Gonzalez (A)gone to Boston

2010-12-06T15:06:00.003-05:00

Adrian Gonzalez: From bust to beast

The trade that was on, then off, then back on is now apparently on for good, whether or not the Red Sox can reach an agreement with Adrian Gonzalez, the Red Sox have acquired him for three prospects Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a PTBNL.

First things first, Adrian Gonzalez is obviously an awesome player (duh) at a ridiculously cheap price ($6.3M) but he is still only on the books for 2011. Also, while you may look at the names above and say "that's all the Padres got!" we must be reminded that days of the Texas Rangers haul for Mark Teixeira (Teixeira and Ron Mahay for Beau Jones, Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Matt Harisson) are long gone, teams value prospects much more now than before. So, with that now said, the Padres actually got a good return for Gonzalez.

The three prospects the Padres received were were on the Red Sox list of top 10 with two of them (Kelly and Rizzo) likely top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Since you may not know too much about them let's have a quick overview:

Casey Kelly: Kelly was drafted as a two-way player but finally gave in to the Red Sox request to become a full-time pitcher in 2010. On paper the results may not look to shiny as his ERA was 5.31 in double-A last year. However, his 4.03 FIP, young age for the league (20 years old) and glowing scouting reports are more indicative of his value. Kelly routinely throws in the low 90s and has a surprising amount of control for all three pitches (fastball, curveball and chanegeup) for what you think a two-way player would have. Before the 2010 season Kelly ranked as the 24th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, was considered the Red Sox top prospect and after the season Jon Sickels still had good things to say about Kelly so impressive 2010 results or not, this is a great prospect. Like any pitcher, Kelly will benefit greatly with the change in league and ball park. Kelly shouldn't start the season on the Padres but he should finish there finally settling behind Mat Latos atop the Padres rotation.

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo projects to the the Padres future replacement at first base for Adrian Gonzalez. Any prospect would struggle to replace Adrian Gonzalez' performance for the Padres, and Rizzo will have trouble to duplicate his performance but he profiles to be an adequate replacement. Petco will surely stifle his performance, but he has alot of power (25 homers in the minors this year), patience (9.6% BB rate in AA as a 20 year old) and defensive value at first base.

Reymond Fuentes: Fuentes is a teenage (19) CF with blazing speed having stole 42 bases this year in 47 tries. Fuentes is a lot of potential but as a third player in a deal that's a risk worth taking. Plus, even if Fuentes' bat doesn't fully develop a defensive minded CF with great speed projects to be very useful in Petco's spacious outfield.

As far as the Red Sox are concerned there are no surprises here-- Adrian Gonzalez is a premier player and Kevin Youklis will gladly move to 3b for a player of his stature. If Gonzalez simply duplicated his performance in San Diego with the Red Sox he'd be great but obviously knowing Peto's effect on hitters they may be able to expect more:

	Home OPS	Road OPS
2010	0.821	0.980
2009	0.859	1.045
2008	0.788	0.946
2007	0.760	0.928
2006	0.815	0.905

It should be noted that the move to the AL will hurt Gonzalez but I have to believe that Petco's park factor hinders performance more than the change in leagues does. Plus, Fenway is one of the better hitter's parks to play in and should play into Adrian Gonzalez' ability to hit the ball the other way off of the Green Monster. Gonzalez is a monster player both with the glove and the bat and will obviously help the Red Sox on their quest to return to the post season in 2011.

This is definitely a great move for the Red Sox but it also confirms that Adrian Beltre will be moving on. So, before we get too excited and crown the Red Sox as the 2011 AL East Champions we should remember that Beltre had an outstanding 2010 season putting up 7.1 WAR, a higher number than Adrian Gonzalez has ever had. Adrian Gonzalez is a better, younger player than the other Adrian, but he's replacing Beltre, not joining him and there is a distinct difference there.

Overall this is a good trade for both sides. The Red Sox finally get the player they've been tied to for about two years now and the Padres were smart not to let a surprise 2010 distract them from their long term plans getting at least 3 solid prospects in return.

Sun Comes Up, Jeter Stays in New York and Minka Kelly is Hot

2010-12-06T12:28:00.002-05:00

Minka Kelly: "cha-ching!"

Derek Jeter finally signs with the Yankees, sadly ending Jeter Saga 2010. It was fun to overstate the probability that Jeter was (a) leaving New York (b) ruining public support for himself with his outrageous (rumored) demands, and (c) going to wear other uniforms but alas, all of that is over as Jeter and the Yankees have made an agreement.

The Yankees, as we all know by now, offered Jeter a reasonable contract of 3 years $45M while the Jeter camp was rumored to have wanted 4 or 5 years with a raise on his ~$19M salary. The two have reached an agreement somewhere in the middle but closer to the Yankees side: 3 years $51M with an option for 2014 at $8M with a $3M buyout. Essentially at worst Jeter will make $56M for three years (almost $19M per) and at best Jeter can make a lot more depending on how well he does and if the option is picked up (maximum value of $65M for 4 years).

For Jeter, the original Yankees offer was already more than fair based on his projected on-field performance, so this deal is hardly anything to sneeze at. We knew the Yankees would have to overpay at least slightly for Jeter, and this contract doesn't necessarily contradict that, but the Yankees did well for themselves relatively holding firm on Jeter's bogus demands and keeping him at a reasonable price that will likely help the team more than hurt.

A few weeks ago I speculated that Jeter would sign for a little more than the Yankees offered to save some face, and this deal is just that. Not that Jeter would ever have problems sleeping knowing he's next to the lady in the above picture (unless he would prefer not to but that's a different story) but he can now go to sleep easily, knowing he's staying in New York.

Quick(ish) Thoughts

2010-12-03T15:07:00.001-05:00

Autographed Mo card
that I traded for. Sick brag.

Mariano Rivera and the Yankees have reached an agreement yesterday, 2 years $30M. Apparently there was a second (or third) team involved that was offering Rivera a 3rd year and/or more money but I find this pretty hard to believe. The first words that we heard out of Rivera's camp (or by a random "source" close it it) in the beginning of the offseason were that Rivera wanted 2 years at ~$18M per. If that's the case it would seem odd that (a) another team would care to offer a third year and (b) that he would end up signing with the Yankees for less than he initially wanted while he had leverage from another team.

That's kind of all besides the point because we all knew Rivera was going to be paid handsomely and remain on the Yankees, no brainer. Mo at 41 is about as sure of a thing as one can be at that age, safe to say it's a good signing for the Yankees weird as that sounds paying a reliever at that age $15M.

In other free agent signing news, Adam Dunn signed a 4 year deal worth $56M with the Chicago White Sox. This is Dunn's first time playing in the AL, and whether or not the Sox keep Konerko (I think they will) Dunn shouldn't see the field and will likely DH. The White Sox were killed last year by their DH spot, handing the job to Mark Kotsay and co. and letting Jim Thome walk so that clearly won't be an issue for next season. If the White Sox believe that Dunn is the piece that can get them into the postseason than this will be money well spent.

Dunn playing small ball...and failing

At least for the first couple of years. Players like Dunn, those with "old man skills" who hit a lot of homers while striking out and walking a lot with no real defensive value don't necessarily age that well. Dunn, it should be noted, has been a pillar of consistency, both in production and health over the course of his career. However, for what it's worth, Dunn's similarity scores bring up the names Richie Sexson, Jay Buhner, Jeremy Burnitz, Pat Burrell and Troy Glaus. Jay Buhner's last effective year was at age 32, Sexson at 31, Glaus 31, Burrell 31 and Burnitz at 35 thanks to the Coors Field Effect. See the theme here?

If Dunn's production slips a little with age, or if the AL is a little too tough on him, this contract could become an albatross, and rather fast too. Of course, Dunn has played in an average of 158 games while hitting 40 homers over the last 7 years so if he keeps doing that we shouldn't be surprised either. My bet: Adam Dunn has a typical Adam Dunn type year in 2011 helping the White Sox with everyone applauding the move, only to find those same people talk about how bad of a contract it seems in 2014.

Ron Santo, Wish I Knew Ya

2010-12-03T11:39:00.001-05:00

Ron Santo, who has battled Diabetes his whole life and more recently bladder cancer, has passed away today.

I wish I could say that I watched him, listened to him on the radio or at least just heard more about him growing up, but I can't. All that I can really say is what the record shows and what other people have said about him. Most notably that comes via the Hall of Fame debate, in which Santo has been a hot topic after not make it in over his 15 years on the ballot.

Ron Santo played in an era where scoring was down and when his best skills (getting on base and playing defense) were either unrealized or under appreciated. Hiss career was over by the time he was 34 and if he played a little longer while being effective I don't think there would be any doubt he could have made a Hall of Fame speech. That doesn't mean that he needs that in order to be worthy, because as is, I think he's definitely deserving. I don't know enough about Santo to accurately make a comparison but try to think of him as Adrian Beltre, if only Beltre walked a lot and had consistent 30 home run seasons. Yea, that's pretty good.

Santo finished first in the Veterens Committee voting last year but didn't receive the required total to be accepted into the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately it may take his death for people to finally realize he has been deserving all along, I wish he could have lived to make it to Cooperstown.

A sad day for his friends, family, cubs fans and baseball.